This seems like a good time to remind myself of Seth Klarman's observation: that an index fund, by its nature, must occasionally dump perfectly good investments and buy worse ones simply because they need the latter in the basket that the index represents.
If you are, say, in FSKAX at Fidelity, and suddenly "OAI" lists for a gazillion dollars, you might suddenly be quite overweight in a stock that you don't care for. Nvidia and the rest are already warping such funds.
Aside from the value debate it's pretty crazy how far and how fast things have moved since GPT3.5 circa 2022 which is the early onset of OpenAI becoming more formally known mainstream.
Second half of 2026? I would have thought earlier to preempt the bubble bursting. Perhaps they know the IPO would be a flop (like many in 2000) and want to avoid opening all circular deals and the books to the public.
Even if the books were awful, I still think they would IPO well. The hype is too strong to let a little thing like bad books stop them (looking at you Tesla)
Not just retail, plenty of these "leaders" think "AGI" is just around the corner that will allow them to lay off all their employees and give them the 90% margins that they deserve
and of course, hype is extremely valuable returns wise, and institutions play into that as well
Rarely has the pop been scheduled.
This seems like a good time to remind myself of Seth Klarman's observation: that an index fund, by its nature, must occasionally dump perfectly good investments and buy worse ones simply because they need the latter in the basket that the index represents.
If you are, say, in FSKAX at Fidelity, and suddenly "OAI" lists for a gazillion dollars, you might suddenly be quite overweight in a stock that you don't care for. Nvidia and the rest are already warping such funds.
Aside from the value debate it's pretty crazy how far and how fast things have moved since GPT3.5 circa 2022 which is the early onset of OpenAI becoming more formally known mainstream.
This is going to be the most anticipated S-1 in history. Tech and finance podcasters will live off it for weeks.
Second half of 2026? I would have thought earlier to preempt the bubble bursting. Perhaps they know the IPO would be a flop (like many in 2000) and want to avoid opening all circular deals and the books to the public.
Even if the books were awful, I still think they would IPO well. The hype is too strong to let a little thing like bad books stop them (looking at you Tesla)
I could be wrong, but it’s quite a bit harder to build a product that competes with Tesla than with OpenAI.
Lol investors are not stupid. If the books are awful the IPO will fail.
Yeah but there are plenty of retail investors that think zero day options are a winning strategy. You just need some suckers.
Not just retail, plenty of these "leaders" think "AGI" is just around the corner that will allow them to lay off all their employees and give them the 90% margins that they deserve
and of course, hype is extremely valuable returns wise, and institutions play into that as well
> Lol investors are not stupid
Quoted for horrific wrongness.
I got this feeling that "investors are stupid" and that the winning strategy is to assume other investors are even more stupid.
I have given up trying to evaluate the market from sane fundamentals while grifters make money from pumping and dumping meme stocks.