A labor economist I follow explains that this is just a side-effect of the shutdown, but other sources of employment data show that things have not deteriorated too much from the months prior.
There have been some general, very slightly concerning trends for a while now, but the large layoff numbers we hear of are not (yet) reflected in the broader data.
The job market is surprisingly stable, in the sense that hiring is not dropping and neither are layoffs growing (much). However, if you do lose a job, it is very hard to find another one. You do not want to be in that situation.
Post pandemic we had a long period of quite high employment growth, and unemployment is now pretty low, at some point net job growth has to slow down, even if a recession isn't looming.
They drained the swamp, where the swamp is composed of average working Americans. On top of that, F1 student visa and H1Bs still going on as strong programs. I am still optimistic that there may be growth due to decrease in trade deficits, but I don’t see the situation improving much unless there’s a broad push to establish a global minimum corporate tax rate. Why the hell do CEOs still have multi- million/billion salaries? They’re summarily failing the economy, and corporate revenues and stock values.
It's astonishing, but to be expected. People like this literally live in alternate realities where the _ENTIRE_WORLD_ runs on the Republicans / Dems logic.
Their minds are mush and it takes yearssss to even begin to snap them out of it.
I just don't see how the US (possibly even the world) isn't heading for a colossal recession within the next year. The job market is gone. Everything is a recession indicator, we're basically in one right now. Once the AI hype dies, possibly even at the next Nvidia meeting, there's very little left.
There are many big events that could quickly solve the problem. First and foremost: Russia rejoining the global oil market by resolving the Russia-Ukraine war in some way. That would provide enormous impetus.
That means the numbers are as bad as or worse than everyone expects, and the administration wants to hide that data so they can lie about it without contradiction.
Occam's razor rarely ever suggests a cover up. I don't think Hanlon's razor quite applies here since it's not obviously stupidity or malice vs. just actual work prioritization with unexpectedly limited capacity.
A labor economist I follow explains that this is just a side-effect of the shutdown, but other sources of employment data show that things have not deteriorated too much from the months prior.
There have been some general, very slightly concerning trends for a while now, but the large layoff numbers we hear of are not (yet) reflected in the broader data.
The job market is surprisingly stable, in the sense that hiring is not dropping and neither are layoffs growing (much). However, if you do lose a job, it is very hard to find another one. You do not want to be in that situation.
Yep. That's my impression too.
Post pandemic we had a long period of quite high employment growth, and unemployment is now pretty low, at some point net job growth has to slow down, even if a recession isn't looming.
They drained the swamp, where the swamp is composed of average working Americans. On top of that, F1 student visa and H1Bs still going on as strong programs. I am still optimistic that there may be growth due to decrease in trade deficits, but I don’t see the situation improving much unless there’s a broad push to establish a global minimum corporate tax rate. Why the hell do CEOs still have multi- million/billion salaries? They’re summarily failing the economy, and corporate revenues and stock values.
half a million OPT visas at US universities
Democrats happy to see the republicans split into a dilemma of massive proportions so they can look sane and continue doing nothing
The moderates (corporate sellouts) keep the progressives from leading the party
The Republicans could fix horrible situation of godawful Democrats in an instant if they...
Oh, wait!
--
Republicans, the party of personal responsibility and accountability: "Try to stop us!"
"Democrats are useless because they don't stop Republicans from being horrible?"
"Sure Republicans are horrible, but you deserve their abuse because Democrats never do anything about them!"
"Why aren't you more tolerant of my bigotry?"
"What about my freedom to speak like a Nazi?!"
These goofy arguments are an occult possession on the American mind.
It's astonishing, but to be expected. People like this literally live in alternate realities where the _ENTIRE_WORLD_ runs on the Republicans / Dems logic.
Their minds are mush and it takes yearssss to even begin to snap them out of it.
The democrats enabled this by practically implementing an open border policy.
I just don't see how the US (possibly even the world) isn't heading for a colossal recession within the next year. The job market is gone. Everything is a recession indicator, we're basically in one right now. Once the AI hype dies, possibly even at the next Nvidia meeting, there's very little left.
Nvidia outperformed and causing a new rally. Jensen still has his reality distortion field generator.
And Gemini 3 is pretty impressive and made Google go up.
Praise be to Satya Nadella's delusions! It seems their continued purchasing of absurd numbers of chips continues to keep the economy afloat.
The job market is gone but there's an AI hype ongoing? Hmmm ...
There are many big events that could quickly solve the problem. First and foremost: Russia rejoining the global oil market by resolving the Russia-Ukraine war in some way. That would provide enormous impetus.
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That means the numbers are as bad as or worse than everyone expects, and the administration wants to hide that data so they can lie about it without contradiction.
I think the Occam’s razor explanation is that this was caused by the shutdown, not a conspiracy.
Occam's razor suggests a coverup. Means, motive, and opportunity. Hanlon's razor is what you're suggesting.
Occam's razor rarely ever suggests a cover up. I don't think Hanlon's razor quite applies here since it's not obviously stupidity or malice vs. just actual work prioritization with unexpectedly limited capacity.
Are they even collecting the data at this point? Do they even know how bad the numbers are?
I don't know, but I'd bet that if they were expecting the numbers to be good, they would have made really sure the data was collected and reported.
Definitely the sign of a stable, well run government.