The quant fund use case is the most interesting angle here. WARN filings have the rare property of being legally mandated with specific timing (60-day advance notice), which makes the signal horizon predictable in a way that most alternative data is not.
The big caveat: compliance is uneven. Companies under 100 employees are exempt, and there is a documented pattern of employers paying WARN Act penalties retroactively rather than filing -- especially in fast-moving situations where 60 days advance notice is operationally inconvenient. So the signal has systematic gaps at exactly the moments of highest market interest.
Have you looked at coverage rates vs. announced layoffs (e.g., correlation with Challenger Gray reports or JOLTS)? That gap number is basically the signal noise floor for any quant strategy built on this data.
Interesting, though a lot of the UI seems broken. For my state I see some notice dates in the future (it's not explained why, if this is when the filing will be executed or if it's an incorrect filing date, as the column is just "Notice Date")
Some of the entries pull up a page that says "Failed to load company data: No company name provided in URL" from the state specific view (e.g, any link on https://warnfirehose.com/data/layoffs/california ). Has a vibe-coded feel to it.
I saw a lot of "Purchase dataset for city details" in places which was annoying. Wondering how much processing is being done on the base dataset to justify the pricing. Could you explain a bit on the normalization/cleaning process?
Definitely vibe coded. It follows the same generic Claude UI patterns for a data app / data oriented website. Not necessarily a bad thing per say if it's still curated and tweaked with human taste. And ofc validated to work :)
Great site thank you. Just curious, I looked up my company(more than 40k employees across the world including many US states) and it seems like I am not seeing the layoffs that colleagues have experienced. This is probably expected as im probably missing some criteria. Do all layoffs have to have a WARN notice or are there mechanisms/criteria that allow companies to lay people off without filing these noticies?
The quant fund use case is the most interesting angle here. WARN filings have the rare property of being legally mandated with specific timing (60-day advance notice), which makes the signal horizon predictable in a way that most alternative data is not.
The big caveat: compliance is uneven. Companies under 100 employees are exempt, and there is a documented pattern of employers paying WARN Act penalties retroactively rather than filing -- especially in fast-moving situations where 60 days advance notice is operationally inconvenient. So the signal has systematic gaps at exactly the moments of highest market interest.
Have you looked at coverage rates vs. announced layoffs (e.g., correlation with Challenger Gray reports or JOLTS)? That gap number is basically the signal noise floor for any quant strategy built on this data.
Interesting, though a lot of the UI seems broken. For my state I see some notice dates in the future (it's not explained why, if this is when the filing will be executed or if it's an incorrect filing date, as the column is just "Notice Date")
Some of the entries pull up a page that says "Failed to load company data: No company name provided in URL" from the state specific view (e.g, any link on https://warnfirehose.com/data/layoffs/california ). Has a vibe-coded feel to it.
I saw a lot of "Purchase dataset for city details" in places which was annoying. Wondering how much processing is being done on the base dataset to justify the pricing. Could you explain a bit on the normalization/cleaning process?
Definitely vibe coded. It follows the same generic Claude UI patterns for a data app / data oriented website. Not necessarily a bad thing per say if it's still curated and tweaked with human taste. And ofc validated to work :)
Great site thank you. Just curious, I looked up my company(more than 40k employees across the world including many US states) and it seems like I am not seeing the layoffs that colleagues have experienced. This is probably expected as im probably missing some criteria. Do all layoffs have to have a WARN notice or are there mechanisms/criteria that allow companies to lay people off without filing these noticies?
Many companies pay severance in lieu of giving notice.
Now we need a usable website that uses this API to show latest layoffs in, for example, CA.