Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).
A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.
I also wonder what this means for smartphone-esque devices like the Switch 2. If this goes on long enough I won't be surprised if they release a 'lite' model with less RAM/Storage and bifurcate their console capabilities, worse than what they did with 3DS > 2DS .
> A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.
Considering how many people are so averse to programming that they use LLMs to generate code for them? Not very likely IMO. I would like to see it happen, but people seem allergic to actually trying to be good at the craft these days.
From everything I’ve seen, LLMs aren’t exactly known for writing extremely optimized code.
Also, what happens to the stability and security of my phone after they let an LLM loose on the entire code base for a weekend?
There are 1.5 billion iPhones out there. It’s not a place to play fast and loose with bleeding edge tech known for hallucinations and poor architecture.
I was trying to upload a 300mb video via the local police's web interface, a very important matter. I had to set my phone screen to stay on for 30 minutes and then leave the web browser open without touching it. Disabling all power saving measures makes not difference. This was the only way I could get it to finish uploading. I'm on a pixel 8 pro with grapheneos. Same thing in both Firefox and vanadium. I don't think it runs out of ram, the system is just too trigger happy. The battery still doesn't last all day anyway.
I had a China phone with amazing specs but it KEPT KILLING EVERYTHING.
Hardware is pretty useless if the software that drives it is useless. I don't know it probably works better in China all I know is that I went back to good old Samsung.
It's a pervasive Chinese phone problem. I've used many and they all have "Battery saving" features on by default, which means killing background apps after a while apparently. Battery life is great, but newly installed apps sometimes don't work as they should.
The market demands must be different there. I've disabled "battery optimisation" for all the apps I need to stay open (and some apps even prompt me to disable it!), and I don't have any issues in daily use.
That kind of aggressive process termination will be becoming less common since Android introduced freezer [1] optimization to put a background process to a completely unscheduled state.
I feel like my 3GS was way better about resuming where I left off than any fancy new iPhone I’ve had in the past few years.
Big name apps like Facebook, YouTube, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts seem totally disinterred in preserving my place.
YouTube being the worst where I often stack a bunch of videos in queue, pause to do something else for a while and when I return to the app the queue has been purged.
I feel like that's definitely a choice for Facebook at least - there's no technical reason the app couldn't remember at least the post you were looking at. I think they literally don't care if you were halfway through reading something when you flicked out of the app and go back in - refreshing the page and showing you all new stuff is probably measurably "better for 'engagement'" by whatever silly metrics they use.
I find myself saving a ton of stuff to my Watch Later list, because I can’t trust the Back button when using YouTube. This issue exists on the phone, web, and AppleTV. YouTube just likes to randomly refresh everything. It’s the most annoying “feature”.
YouTube will literally resume back to exactly where I was, then seemingly noticing that I switched back to it, go ahead and close the video I was watching. With all sorts of animations too, it's not just a case of having showed a cached screenshot. YouTube seems to intentionally forget where in a video I was, often after having been paused in the background for only a minute or two.
Likely some kind of complex refresh operation that kicks off when entering the foreground and takes a few seconds to complete before overwriting your state.
YouTube on TVs will often keep closed captioning on when switching accounts, then notice that CC is on and turn it off. Even though every account in the household always has CC turned on.
Now is bad too, but my recollection is that the iPhone 3G-era task killer was EXTREMELY aggressive and required "tricks" to keep your state in the one app you could run
Too slow to edit. But also now playing just seems to go away after a while. Why isn’t this written to some nonvolatile place and just preserved? It feels like it must be on purpose but I wonder what the purpose is.
I assume the purpose of the Now Playing clearing after a while is the idea that when people start a "new session" with their device it should be "clean". Like, if Now Playing didn't randomly disappear then for most people it would always be on, indicating some paused music or podcast playback. It would also never give a chance for that elusive "start playing" experience that shows up in its place sometimes to recommend that I listen to one of four songs/podcast episodes.
I feel like this might be intentional to a certain degree, at least on YouTube or Facebook.
If you switched off the app while looking at a certain post or watching a certain video, that's a negative engagement indicator, so the app wants to throw you back into the algorithmic feed to show you something new instead.
Ad blockers don't work anymore, at least not with the version YT serves me. If it thinks that I have an ad blocker active (false positives happen too), it will only show a black rectangle and not even load the comments.
I really dont understand that at all. Web Pages are mostly static, you would think the iPhone would cache websites reasonably well.
I remember on Android I dont recall the app name specifically, but it would let me download any website for offline browsing or something, would use it when I knew I might have no internet like a cruise.
Heck there used to be an iOS client for HN that was defunct after some time, but it would let you cache comments and articles for offline reading.
It's the js that does it, because so many webpages are terribly optimized to integrate aggressive ad waterfalls into them. Or have persistent SPA framework's doing continually scope checks.
That being said, there's no reason the Safari context shouldn't be able to suspend the JS and simply resume when the context is brought back to the foregrown. It's already sandboxed, just stop scheduling JS execution for that sandbox.
Web pages that make sense are mostly static. But these days articles need to load each paragraph dynamically, so in order to save 3kb in case you wouldn't finish the article you need to download 5mb of js to do that, plus a bunch of extra handshakes.
iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc.
Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually does OOM, give me a dialog like macOS and ask me what to kill. Then again, if a phone is going OOM with 12GB of RAM there's a serious optimization problem going on with mobile apps.
> iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc.
Android does all sorts of wacky stuff with background tasks too... Although I don't feel like my 6 GB Android is low memory, so maybe there's something there, but I also don't run a lot of apps, and I regularly close Firefox tabs. Android apps do mostly seem well prepared for background shenanigans, cause they happen all the time. There's the AOSP/Google Play background app controls, but also most of the OEMs do some stuff, and sometimes it's very hard to get stuff you want to run in the background to stay running.
I dunno about watches, but Airpods work fine with Android, as long as you disconnect them from FindMy cause there's no way to make them not think they're lost (he says authoritatively, hoping to be corrected).
I recently started learning how to do iOS apps for work and the short answer is: you don't.
Apple seemingly wants all apps to be static jpegs that never need to connect to any data local or remote, and never do any processing. If you want to do something in the background so that your user can multitask, too damn bad.
You can run in the background, for a non-deterministic amount of time. If you do that, iOS nags your user to make it stop. If you access radios, iOS nags your user to disable it.
It's honestly insane. I don't know why or how anyone develops for this platform.
Not to mention the fact that you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen. I can't believe that apple gets away with forcing you to buy a goddamn Mac to complile a program.
I've never felt nagged. Every time I get one of those popups, which isn't too often, I think "neat, good to know."
It's inconvenient that apps can't do long-running operations in the background outside of a few areas, but that's a design feature of the platform. Users of iOS are choosing to give up the ability to run torrent clients or whatever in exchange for knowing that an app isn't going to destroy their battery life in the background.
> If you do that, iOS nags your user to make it stop. If you access radios, iOS nags your user to disable it.
These are features, because we can't trust developers to be smart about how they implement these. In fact, we can't even trust them not to be malicious about it. User nags keep the dveloper honest on a device where battery life and all-day availability is arguably of utmost importance.
> you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen.
IOS or safari issue then, I also have 12GB ram on my S25+, with 25 open tabs, and I quickly did a test, there was non that were un-loaded that I had to reload
It happened a lot on my previous phone with only 4GB ram though
> and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).
Spotted the German lol
The general problem is that many people don't bother testing their apps outside of their office wifi with low latency, low jitter, low packet loss and high bandwidth. Something like persisting the state when the OOM/battery-save killer comes knocking onto some cloud endpoint? Perfectly fine on wifi... but on a mobile connection that might just be EDGE, cut entirely because the user is just getting a phone call and the carrier does not do VoLTE, or be of an absurd latency? Whoops. Process killer knocks a -9 and that's it, state be gone.
Side note: Anyone know of a way to prevent the iPhone hotspot from disassociating with a MacBook when the phone loses network connectivity? It's darn annoying, I counted having to reconnect twenty times on a train ride less than an hour.
You're just adding a step that doesn't fix the primary issue (you can already manually save any page you want without adding it your reading list). Someone should be able to go to their translate app, then their photo galley, and back to Safari without it needing to refresh the context.
That doesn’t save the current dynamic state of the page. It’s at most useful for static content, but even on a Wikipedia page you’ll lose your current state of expanded/collapsed sections and hence your reading position.
Wasn't the 2DS just a 3DS minus the lenticular screen, and especially minus the front-facing camera that did face tracking to improve the quality of the 3D?
My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway, so it seemed reasonable to offer a model at lower cost without the associated hardware.
> My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway
It was also because young children weren't supposed to use the 3D screen due to fears of it affecting vision development. You could always lock it out via parental controls on the original, but still that was cited as a reason for adding the 2DS to the lineup.
> Fils-Aime said. “And so with the Nintendo 3DS, we were clear to parents that, ‘hey, we recommend that your children be seven and older to utilize this device.’ So clearly that creates an opportunity for five-year-olds, six-year-olds, that first-time handheld gaming consumer."
That is an Apple problem and keep in mind that iPhone doesn't do multi-task, the fact that you are having problems with 12GB is not surprised to me.
I have to use a Macbook M4 at work with 24GB, I have an AMD Lenovo Ryzen7 with 32GB running Linux Mint Cinnamon.
It is infuriating how slow this Macbook is, even to shut it down is slow asf.
macOS is not different than Windows, I cannot wait for COB to get back to my Linux laptop.
24GB is not enough, it will keep swapping, compressing etc. I had such device at work. 32GB is a night and day difference.
That said my workflows are such that I need at least 128GB now...
With dram, you have to refresh every cell within a periodic interval. Usually this is handled in hardware. It would be a crazy optimization if unused pages weren’t refreshed. There would have to be a decent amount of circuitry to decide that.
I'm not suggesting it exists, but I could plausibly see something where the range to refresh could be changed at runtime. If you could adjust refresh on your 8 GB phone in 1 GB intervals (refresh up to 1/2/4/8 GB etc; or refresh yes/no for each 1GB interval), the OS could be sure to put its memory at low addresses, and the OS could do memory compaction into lower addresses and disable refresh on higher addresses from time to time. Or ... I think there's apis for allocations for background memory vs foreground memory; if you allocate background memory at low addresses and foreground memory at high addresses, then when the OS wants to sleep, it kills the process logically and then turns off refresh on the ram ... when it wants to use it again later, it will have to zero the ram cause who knows what it'll have.
I don't work at that kind of level, so I dunno if the juice would be worth the squeeze (sleep with DRAM refresh is already very low power on phone scales), but it seems doable.
This is an argument for having less memory on a hardware level. But once the DRAM is there, it uses power, whether or not it stores useful data or useless data.
There's a reason why we say unused RAM is wasted RAM.
Powering down unused physical RAM is absolutely a thing on some systems. For one thing, it's required if you ever want to support physical memory hotplug. The real issue however is that the gain from not doing DRAM refresh is clearly negligible: it's no more than the difference between putting a computer to sleep (ACPI S3), or putting a phone to sleep in airplane mode - and powering it off.
Am I too much of an idealist to hope that AI leads to less buggy software? On the one hand, it should reduce the time of development; on the other hand, I'm worried devs will just let the agents run free w/o proper design specs.
The message with AI from execs is that you have to go fast (rush!). Quality of work drops when you rush. You forget things, don’t dwell on decisions and consequences, just go-fast-and-break-things.
> The message with AI from execs is that you have to go fast (rush!). Quality of work drops when you rush.
Sure, but otherwise, the competition will be first to market, and the exec may lose their bonus. So, the exec keeps their bonus, and when the tech debt collapses, the exec will either have departed long ago or will be let go with a golden parachute, and in the worst case an entire product line goes down the drain, if not the entire company.
The financialization and stonkmarketization of everything is killing our society.
The average LLM writes cleaner, better-factored code than the average engineer at my company. However, I worry about the volume of code leading to system-scale issues. Prior to LLMs, the social contract was that a human needs to understand changes and the system as a whole.
With that contract being eroded, I think the sloppiness of testing, validation, and even architecture in many organizations is going to be exposed.
The social contract where I work is that you’re still expected to understand and be accountable for any code you ship. If you use an LLM to generate the code, it’s yours. If someone is uncomfortable with that, then they are leaning too hard on the LLM and working outside of their skill level.
Considering that AI still can't even reliably get basic programming tasks correct, it doesn't seem very likely that turning it loose will improve software quality.
It might actually turn out like that. A lot of bloat came from efforts to minimize developer time. Instead of truly native apps a lot of stuff these days is some react shaped tower of abstractions with little regard for hardware constraints.
That trend might reverse if porting to a best practice native App becomes trivial.
Considering how many companies that have adopted AI led to disastrous bugs and larger security holes?
I wouldn't call it an idealist position as much as a fools one. Companies don't give a shit about software security or sustainable software as long as they can ship faster and pump stocks higher.
Removing docking functionality could possibly reduce RAM usage by never enabling 4K screen output. This would be similar to the switch lite.
Although, for a $450 device that doesn’t need to make much of a profit on its own, I also don’t think they’re heavy on memory in the first place (12GB). You can buy top quality Chinese Android handhelds with more RAM and better Qualcomm processors than the Switch 2 for about the same price, and those companies are making $0 in software royalties (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
> Removing docking functionality could possibly reduce RAM usage by never enabling 4K screen output. This would be similar to the switch lite.
Every version of the Switch 1 had 4GB of RAM, they didn't cut that on the Lite. Going back and patching every game to ensure it ran on less RAM it was originally designed for would have been a nightmare.
> (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
AYN just announced that the Thor will get a price increase soon for obvious reasons.
Oh yeah, I accidentally implied the switch lite cut down RAM when it didn’t.
Of course the Thor Max will have a price increase, but also, obviously 16GB/1TB is a massively bigger bill of materials than the Switch 2’s 12GB/256GB configuration.
And I forgot to mention that Nintendo has far more pricing leverage in terms of their volume.
I honestly think the memory shortage kills the possibility of a Switch 2 Lite.
Nintendo can't realistically take memory budget away from developers after the fact. The 2DS cut the 3D feature from the 3DS, but all games were required to be playable in 2D from day 1, so no existing games broke on the cost-reduced 2DS.
The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.
The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance.
As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though.
Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.
> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.
It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways.
I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google.
A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a.
Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the phone in my day to day. In 10 hours today I sent 3 text messages with Whatsapp and lost 60% of my battery in that time frame. Up until a few days ago, 60% would last me 3 days.
I find it weirdly coincidental that the battery life went from amazing to worse than a 5 year old device I had prior to this just as they are releasing new phones. I've powered it down and given it a full discharge / charge too. It's still draining at an alarming rate.
Did it happen to them in the last few days? Did it self fix itself?
I wish there were better options for phones. It's absolutely crazy to me that a phone can be perfectly working one day and then it starts getting issues like this out of the blue.
It makes it completely undependable. All I want is a phone I can trust traveling with where I'm not going to wake up the next day and then the phone starts draining 3-4x faster than it normally does.
There hasn't even been a system update for almost 3 weeks, so it wasn't an update that busted things.
Upcoming Apple display mounted to wall or robot arm is rumored to have audio interface and new OS without 3rd-party apps, only "AI".
Jony Ive at OpenAI is rumored to have smart speaker, pendant, pen and bone-conducting headset in the launch pipeline. Audio interfaces, no screens,
Meta is selling millions of smart glasses, with Apple and others following.
If the memory market was not distorted, home AI + agents + open models could have a bigger role via AMD Strix Halo. Instead, they will be reserved for those who can afford to spend five figures on 512GB or 1TB unified memory on Mac Studio Ultra devices.
> users [could] interact with Siri and future Apple devices without speaking out loud.. AI systems capable of interpreting facial expressions and subtle muscle movements to understand so-called “silent speech.”
Not sure. Some AI audio pendants are always on. The Apple device is rumored to adapt its interface to the user based on facial recognition. They could choose to start monitoring audio when it thinks a known human wants to interact with the device, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47145201
Apple is developing a tabletop robot as the centerpiece of its artificial intelligence strategy, with plans to launch the device in 2027.. The robot resembles an iPad mounted on a movable limb that can swivel to follow users around a room..The company is also exploring other robotics concepts, including a mobile bot with wheels similar to Amazon’s Astro, and has discussed humanoid models..
OSes have been in decline for a long time. This memory price is just a blip, though. These supply and demand shocks happen periodically and always return to normal.
> Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.
Just "commoditizing". Last years microwave ovens were basically the same as 2024's also, and no one cares. You still need them and people still buy them and use them as much as ever, but at a replacement rate and not because of fashion or innovation.
That is a good thing. It means the economy is doing what it's supposed to do and bringing maximal value to consumers so we can spend our resources more efficiently (on other fashion-driven junk in different market segments), making us richer.
It's only bad news if your business is selling "phones" and not innovative products more generally. Which, yeah, is pretty much AAPL's trap. But that's on them, not us. We're winning.
We are and have been for many years now. Check out the "free" phone tier at your mobile vendor of choice. Those are great devices!
They may not match your particular tastes, but people with inflexible taste are always the last-resort market for manufacturers of commoditized products. People still buy from Hermès even though Shein completely dwarfs them in revenue, etc... That's the way it will always be with Apple too.
Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy.
Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.
Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or not meet expectations which really is the tip of the iceberg.
The US/SK memory cartel understandably sold out for a massive short term windfall but they their long term decisions to limit supply have created a huge opportunity for China. I wouldn't be surprised if this will go down in the history books as the start of the exit for US/SK from the industry and the start of Chinese dominance.
The smart phone industry is likely to respond with an increasingly hostile anti-consumer approach as they try and lock customers into the cabins of the sinking ship. I expect cheap and cheerful Chinese budget phones aren't going anywhere.
I am happy for ram, cpu and storage to stall. I want a more robust and open phone which can take a fall and be updated long after the vendor loses interest. I expect to uninstall most of my apps rather than install new ones as I increasingly disconnect from an ever more distracting and worthless medium. I have cancelled nearly every subscription service in the last 12 months. And I have been deleting a lot of free accounts and apps. Its like doing a big cleanup. Surprisingly rewarding.
HN has felt like more than 50% AI industry promoting blog spam of little interest to me as a reader for some time. I am setting a budget of ten, no make it five, more posts here. Then I am out for good. Account deletion and no looking back.
> Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.
Companies have reduced staff because of the impact of tariffs, because of low consumer confidence and spending, or as a ploy to pump share prices. Then they claim it’s AI, because it sounds a lot better to say that you’re reducing headcount because of AI than it does to admit that you’re cutting costs because of falling revenue.
The U.S. gov't is now committing a sizeable chunk of GDP to investments and subsidies to AI companies and data centers and has reduced overall investment in wind and solar.
The DRAM shortage and lack of fab capacity have also caused the Playstation 6 to slip to 2029 or so.[1] Game consoles are vulnerable. They need a lot of RAM and have to sell at a moderate price.
The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again. "While memory prices are projected to stabilize by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to previous level — making the sub-$100 segment (171 million devices) permanently uneconomical." Before, they always came back down in the next RAM glut, when everybody built too much capacity. Why is that not going to happen next time?
> The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again
Sure thing. I'd take a look at IDC & similar firms' forecasting history before worrying too much about what they say.
There is an AI boom right now. There will be a consolidation cycle at some point. When that happens half the players, if not more, will disappear. The huge hardware budgets will go with them.
We also can't be certain that the DRAM makers aren't capitalizing on this opportunity because they can. Remember: all of them are convicted monopolists. As in actual prison time convicted. And fined. And lost civil lawsuits. Multiple times.
I just can't see AI paying enough of a premium on HBM to justify the DRAM spikes. Frankly I can't see the volume either. Wafer starts on DRAM are dramatically bigger than you are probably imagining. DRAM is in practically everything these days. AI servers is but a drop in the bucket. 10% of the market? Yeah right, if its 4% I'd be shocked. And you are telling me a shift of 4% of wafers to HBM is driving these prices and shortages?
I humbly suggest if you look at the numbers something smells funny.
Disclaimer: none of us has access to the actual data, a lot of it is inferred by industry players. Some are well connected and usually accurate but that is not evidence. Therefore it is possible this is a genuine market action and nothing nefarious is going on.
You’re asking why a market that has had 3 price fixing lawsuits in less than 2 decades (criminal convictions in 1998, civil in 2006 and 2018) isn’t going to follow market dynamics?
One reason we end up with excess capacity is process improvements; adding new fabs to get more density or performance doesn't make old fabs go away, and so we go through cycles of excess capacity. Demand has been relatively constant.
Here we're facing different forces-- unprecedented demand for DRAM that may be durable. But it also looks like the pace of supply changes may be decreased as process improvements get smaller and the industry stops moving so much in lockstep.
It still matters what happens to the demand function, though. If enough AI startups blow up that there's a lot of secondhand SDRAM in the market, and demand for new SDRAM is impacted, too, that will push things down.
Sort of like what happened with the glut of telecom equipment after
Because this shortage isn't natural, it's the result of OpenAI flexing monopsony power to deprive everyone else for its strategic gain. Unlike an organic shortage, there is no compelling reason for otherwise excess capacity to be built, since this artificial shortage can end as arbitrarily as it started.
The datacenters are still going to be built, and their usage won't suddenly fall just because the companies behind some of the products on them suddenly lose value. The demand is not tied to their profits, so I find it unlikely for the shortage to just end.
These data center projects are losing hundreds of billions of dollars which they don't have, and some evidence is starring to come out they're just money laundering schemes to get money from the government to contractors. I wouldn't bet on them all being built.
There far too many railways, amusement parks, housing developments and other bubble ventures that were either never even completed after wasting a lot of money or went bust soon after opening.
No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.
The data centers have already been financed, they’re not going to stop halfway through because they’ve run out of money. Whether or not they’ll make money on completion is a different story, but that’s 2-3 years away at least. Then you might see RAM prices drop, but not before.
I recently upgraded from the Pixel 7 to the 10. Nothing but regret - the phone isn't worse, but it's not better either, and I had to reinstall everything. Why did I do this?
The cool thing about Pixels is that not only will you have to pay extra for RAM because of AI, but some of the RAM you paid for will also be permanently reserved for local AI features, regardless of whether you use them.
On a Pixel phone you have only Google spyware. On another brand's phone you have all the same Google spyware, plus the spyware from that brand and a permanently locked bootloader.
You can remove 3rd party spyware/bloat in 15 minutes with Shizuka/canto and a usb cable and you won't notice anything changed in the phone. Unfortunately the Google spyware is so deeply integrated that you can't really do that unless you accept a ton of things not working - not just Google apps but also lots of third party apps that require Play services.
Yes, if you want full degoogling you need a custom ROM like Graphene on Pixels or Lineage. The main issue these days is that bootloaders are locked. Phone manufacturers mostly refuse to give you control over your own hardware.
Meanwhile Apple iPhone sales were up 23% YoY end of last year. It'll likely be a good year for Apple, with a little more room in margin to make some plays, and a lottt of cash.
Dropped my iPhone couple of days ago so I had to go back to an old phone. Pixel 3a. Opens Signal and HomeAssistant faster than my 2022 iPhone ever did so why would I even buy a new phone and go back at this point. The best phones (prive/value) have already been built and sold.
Also Python generators for the lulz. They help one to write extremely memory-efficient programs. Perhaps the memory shortage further helps cement Python in the language popularity charts, vis-à-vis languages that tend to load whole data in memory by default, like R.
If we are talking about R, a lot of people who converted from R continued to operate in the same manner, by loading entire datasets into memory with pandas and numpy.
> I wonder whether we’ll see a secondary effect in the resale market.
I'm paying more on ebay for thinkcentre tiny and thinkpads - 12th gen intel and newer.
Refurbished spinny drives have been steadily climbing - up 50% since late last year. That's on top of the 20% mystery jump that happened in the last week of 2024.
We already are. Check eBay at the component level, which is showing it quite clearly. Look for secondary/reclaimed/refurbished components to backfill the gaps too.
Also be aware that this stuff whipsaws, if OpenAI actually takes posession of that memory and decides they can't use it and dumps, we're going to see a crash. Likewise if they back out of the deals with the memory fabs (or fail and default). There's some scary volatility on the horizon.
It's that everything has become 20% more expensive in the past year, I'm being taxed to death, fighting with companies trying to money grab me, my electric bill is now $800, and I'm now too broke to buy a new phone every 2 years when most of my income gets eaten by the "system".
I'll wait until either SPY does another 50% run or BTC does another 100% run and then I'll buy a new phone. Google, you want me to buy your new phone? Do something to make SPY or BTC go up and then we'll talk. Until then my current phone works, and the new features aren't a must-have.
Yeah, so I'm not buying unnecessary crap this year.
If the "system" wants to drive more consumption, it's on the "system" to put more buying power into my hands. Double my salary, reduce my taxes, make BTC do a big run up, something. Otherwise I'm happy staying put.
Wait until we find out that all of tech (ever) has been subsidized by the true-so-far assumption of continued growth, allowing today’s costs to be paid for by tomorrow’s larger market.
I doubt. Microsoft would much rather sell you a thin client & a Windows 365 subscription, and Nvidia wants you to use GeForce now instead of buying a GPU.
The shortage is manufactured, I have my doubts it will "end" in a conventional sense. I'm more skeptical and feel like this is yet another consolidation of wealth and a means of taking away compute power from people, which prevents startup competition. This way the hyperscalers are the only ones that can offer any meaningful compute.
Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).
A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.
I also wonder what this means for smartphone-esque devices like the Switch 2. If this goes on long enough I won't be surprised if they release a 'lite' model with less RAM/Storage and bifurcate their console capabilities, worse than what they did with 3DS > 2DS .
> A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem.
Considering how many people are so averse to programming that they use LLMs to generate code for them? Not very likely IMO. I would like to see it happen, but people seem allergic to actually trying to be good at the craft these days.
I think we aren't far from AI being able to solve this sort of problem too.
Imagine you are Apple and can just set an LLM loose on the codebase for a weekend with the task to reduce RAM usage of every component by 50%...
From everything I’ve seen, LLMs aren’t exactly known for writing extremely optimized code.
Also, what happens to the stability and security of my phone after they let an LLM loose on the entire code base for a weekend?
There are 1.5 billion iPhones out there. It’s not a place to play fast and loose with bleeding edge tech known for hallucinations and poor architecture.
If you ask an LLM to code whatever, it definitely won’t produce optimized code.
If you direct it to do a specific task to find memory and cpu optimization points, based on perf metrics, then it’s a completely different world.
LLMs are trained on currently existing code.
I was trying to upload a 300mb video via the local police's web interface, a very important matter. I had to set my phone screen to stay on for 30 minutes and then leave the web browser open without touching it. Disabling all power saving measures makes not difference. This was the only way I could get it to finish uploading. I'm on a pixel 8 pro with grapheneos. Same thing in both Firefox and vanadium. I don't think it runs out of ram, the system is just too trigger happy. The battery still doesn't last all day anyway.
Very specific complaint that has nothing to do with the amount of ram you have, that’s a software choice in iOS. Kinda a tangent for a top comment.
I had a China phone with amazing specs but it KEPT KILLING EVERYTHING.
Hardware is pretty useless if the software that drives it is useless. I don't know it probably works better in China all I know is that I went back to good old Samsung.
It's a pervasive Chinese phone problem. I've used many and they all have "Battery saving" features on by default, which means killing background apps after a while apparently. Battery life is great, but newly installed apps sometimes don't work as they should.
The market demands must be different there. I've disabled "battery optimisation" for all the apps I need to stay open (and some apps even prompt me to disable it!), and I don't have any issues in daily use.
That kind of aggressive process termination will be becoming less common since Android introduced freezer [1] optimization to put a background process to a completely unscheduled state.
[1] https://source.android.com/docs/core/perf/cached-apps-freeze...
I feel like my 3GS was way better about resuming where I left off than any fancy new iPhone I’ve had in the past few years.
Big name apps like Facebook, YouTube, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts seem totally disinterred in preserving my place.
YouTube being the worst where I often stack a bunch of videos in queue, pause to do something else for a while and when I return to the app the queue has been purged.
I feel like that's definitely a choice for Facebook at least - there's no technical reason the app couldn't remember at least the post you were looking at. I think they literally don't care if you were halfway through reading something when you flicked out of the app and go back in - refreshing the page and showing you all new stuff is probably measurably "better for 'engagement'" by whatever silly metrics they use.
I find myself saving a ton of stuff to my Watch Later list, because I can’t trust the Back button when using YouTube. This issue exists on the phone, web, and AppleTV. YouTube just likes to randomly refresh everything. It’s the most annoying “feature”.
YouTube will literally resume back to exactly where I was, then seemingly noticing that I switched back to it, go ahead and close the video I was watching. With all sorts of animations too, it's not just a case of having showed a cached screenshot. YouTube seems to intentionally forget where in a video I was, often after having been paused in the background for only a minute or two.
Why??
Likely some kind of complex refresh operation that kicks off when entering the foreground and takes a few seconds to complete before overwriting your state.
translation: cancer
YouTube on TVs will often keep closed captioning on when switching accounts, then notice that CC is on and turn it off. Even though every account in the household always has CC turned on.
Now is bad too, but my recollection is that the iPhone 3G-era task killer was EXTREMELY aggressive and required "tricks" to keep your state in the one app you could run
Too slow to edit. But also now playing just seems to go away after a while. Why isn’t this written to some nonvolatile place and just preserved? It feels like it must be on purpose but I wonder what the purpose is.
I assume the purpose of the Now Playing clearing after a while is the idea that when people start a "new session" with their device it should be "clean". Like, if Now Playing didn't randomly disappear then for most people it would always be on, indicating some paused music or podcast playback. It would also never give a chance for that elusive "start playing" experience that shows up in its place sometimes to recommend that I listen to one of four songs/podcast episodes.
I feel like this might be intentional to a certain degree, at least on YouTube or Facebook.
If you switched off the app while looking at a certain post or watching a certain video, that's a negative engagement indicator, so the app wants to throw you back into the algorithmic feed to show you something new instead.
Conveniently, if you're watching a youtube video with an ad, switch apps and youtube reloads, you have to watch the ad again
You guys have ads on youtube?
Ad blockers don't work anymore, at least not with the version YT serves me. If it thinks that I have an ad blocker active (false positives happen too), it will only show a black rectangle and not even load the comments.
It's more common than you might think.
I really dont understand that at all. Web Pages are mostly static, you would think the iPhone would cache websites reasonably well.
I remember on Android I dont recall the app name specifically, but it would let me download any website for offline browsing or something, would use it when I knew I might have no internet like a cruise.
Heck there used to be an iOS client for HN that was defunct after some time, but it would let you cache comments and articles for offline reading.
It's the js that does it, because so many webpages are terribly optimized to integrate aggressive ad waterfalls into them. Or have persistent SPA framework's doing continually scope checks.
That being said, there's no reason the Safari context shouldn't be able to suspend the JS and simply resume when the context is brought back to the foregrown. It's already sandboxed, just stop scheduling JS execution for that sandbox.
Obviously it depends on what you're consuming, but popular sites are rarely static web pages.
Safari suspends backgrounded tabs. I think that's what we're observing here rather than strictly memory pressure.
Web pages that make sense are mostly static. But these days articles need to load each paragraph dynamically, so in order to save 3kb in case you wouldn't finish the article you need to download 5mb of js to do that, plus a bunch of extra handshakes.
iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc.
Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually does OOM, give me a dialog like macOS and ask me what to kill. Then again, if a phone is going OOM with 12GB of RAM there's a serious optimization problem going on with mobile apps.
> iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc.
Android does all sorts of wacky stuff with background tasks too... Although I don't feel like my 6 GB Android is low memory, so maybe there's something there, but I also don't run a lot of apps, and I regularly close Firefox tabs. Android apps do mostly seem well prepared for background shenanigans, cause they happen all the time. There's the AOSP/Google Play background app controls, but also most of the OEMs do some stuff, and sometimes it's very hard to get stuff you want to run in the background to stay running.
I dunno about watches, but Airpods work fine with Android, as long as you disconnect them from FindMy cause there's no way to make them not think they're lost (he says authoritatively, hoping to be corrected).
I recently started learning how to do iOS apps for work and the short answer is: you don't.
Apple seemingly wants all apps to be static jpegs that never need to connect to any data local or remote, and never do any processing. If you want to do something in the background so that your user can multitask, too damn bad.
You can run in the background, for a non-deterministic amount of time. If you do that, iOS nags your user to make it stop. If you access radios, iOS nags your user to disable it.
It's honestly insane. I don't know why or how anyone develops for this platform.
Not to mention the fact that you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen. I can't believe that apple gets away with forcing you to buy a goddamn Mac to complile a program.
You can get a brand new Mac for < $600
People develop for iOS because iOS users spend more money. End of story.
I've never felt nagged. Every time I get one of those popups, which isn't too often, I think "neat, good to know."
It's inconvenient that apps can't do long-running operations in the background outside of a few areas, but that's a design feature of the platform. Users of iOS are choosing to give up the ability to run torrent clients or whatever in exchange for knowing that an app isn't going to destroy their battery life in the background.
> If you do that, iOS nags your user to make it stop. If you access radios, iOS nags your user to disable it.
These are features, because we can't trust developers to be smart about how they implement these. In fact, we can't even trust them not to be malicious about it. User nags keep the dveloper honest on a device where battery life and all-day availability is arguably of utmost importance.
> you have to spend $5k minimum just to put hello world on the screen.
Now that's just nonsense.
IOS or safari issue then, I also have 12GB ram on my S25+, with 25 open tabs, and I quickly did a test, there was non that were un-loaded that I had to reload
It happened a lot on my previous phone with only 4GB ram though
> and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!).
Spotted the German lol
The general problem is that many people don't bother testing their apps outside of their office wifi with low latency, low jitter, low packet loss and high bandwidth. Something like persisting the state when the OOM/battery-save killer comes knocking onto some cloud endpoint? Perfectly fine on wifi... but on a mobile connection that might just be EDGE, cut entirely because the user is just getting a phone call and the carrier does not do VoLTE, or be of an absurd latency? Whoops. Process killer knocks a -9 and that's it, state be gone.
Side note: Anyone know of a way to prevent the iPhone hotspot from disassociating with a MacBook when the phone loses network connectivity? It's darn annoying, I counted having to reconnect twenty times on a train ride less than an hour.
It’s more likely related to choices involving making the battery last long.
Settings > Apps > Safari > Reading List: Automatically Save Offline
“Save webpages to read later in Safari on iPhone” https://support.apple.com/guide/iphone/save-pages-to-a-readi...
You're just adding a step that doesn't fix the primary issue (you can already manually save any page you want without adding it your reading list). Someone should be able to go to their translate app, then their photo galley, and back to Safari without it needing to refresh the context.
That doesn’t save the current dynamic state of the page. It’s at most useful for static content, but even on a Wikipedia page you’ll lose your current state of expanded/collapsed sections and hence your reading position.
Wasn't the 2DS just a 3DS minus the lenticular screen, and especially minus the front-facing camera that did face tracking to improve the quality of the 3D?
My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway, so it seemed reasonable to offer a model at lower cost without the associated hardware.
> My understanding was that market research showed a lot of users were turning off the 3D stuff anyway
It was also because young children weren't supposed to use the 3D screen due to fears of it affecting vision development. You could always lock it out via parental controls on the original, but still that was cited as a reason for adding the 2DS to the lineup.
https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/08/28/nintendo-announces-2...
> Fils-Aime said. “And so with the Nintendo 3DS, we were clear to parents that, ‘hey, we recommend that your children be seven and older to utilize this device.’ So clearly that creates an opportunity for five-year-olds, six-year-olds, that first-time handheld gaming consumer."
That is an Apple problem and keep in mind that iPhone doesn't do multi-task, the fact that you are having problems with 12GB is not surprised to me.
I have to use a Macbook M4 at work with 24GB, I have an AMD Lenovo Ryzen7 with 32GB running Linux Mint Cinnamon. It is infuriating how slow this Macbook is, even to shut it down is slow asf.
macOS is not different than Windows, I cannot wait for COB to get back to my Linux laptop.
24GB is not enough, it will keep swapping, compressing etc. I had such device at work. 32GB is a night and day difference. That said my workflows are such that I need at least 128GB now...
How did we get here? Quake ran well with 16MB of ram.
Android Firefox with ad blockers - life changing.
Memory uses power, this is a major factor in why aggressively stopping things helps.
There is a strong argument modern mobile goes too far for this.
With dram, you have to refresh every cell within a periodic interval. Usually this is handled in hardware. It would be a crazy optimization if unused pages weren’t refreshed. There would have to be a decent amount of circuitry to decide that.
I'm not suggesting it exists, but I could plausibly see something where the range to refresh could be changed at runtime. If you could adjust refresh on your 8 GB phone in 1 GB intervals (refresh up to 1/2/4/8 GB etc; or refresh yes/no for each 1GB interval), the OS could be sure to put its memory at low addresses, and the OS could do memory compaction into lower addresses and disable refresh on higher addresses from time to time. Or ... I think there's apis for allocations for background memory vs foreground memory; if you allocate background memory at low addresses and foreground memory at high addresses, then when the OS wants to sleep, it kills the process logically and then turns off refresh on the ram ... when it wants to use it again later, it will have to zero the ram cause who knows what it'll have.
I don't work at that kind of level, so I dunno if the juice would be worth the squeeze (sleep with DRAM refresh is already very low power on phone scales), but it seems doable.
I can't imagine the iphone is entirely powering down memory. Otherwise just unallocating memory won't change the power consumption.
Those aren’t the only two possibilities though.
What other possibility are there? By what mechanism are you suggesting that iPhones save power by keeping RAM usage low?
Do you have any source that the iphone is turning RAM on and off?
This is an argument for having less memory on a hardware level. But once the DRAM is there, it uses power, whether or not it stores useful data or useless data.
There's a reason why we say unused RAM is wasted RAM.
Powering down unused physical RAM is absolutely a thing on some systems. For one thing, it's required if you ever want to support physical memory hotplug. The real issue however is that the gain from not doing DRAM refresh is clearly negligible: it's no more than the difference between putting a computer to sleep (ACPI S3), or putting a phone to sleep in airplane mode - and powering it off.
And you're saying Apple is doing that on the iPhone?
Am I too much of an idealist to hope that AI leads to less buggy software? On the one hand, it should reduce the time of development; on the other hand, I'm worried devs will just let the agents run free w/o proper design specs.
The message with AI from execs is that you have to go fast (rush!). Quality of work drops when you rush. You forget things, don’t dwell on decisions and consequences, just go-fast-and-break-things.
> The message with AI from execs is that you have to go fast (rush!). Quality of work drops when you rush.
Sure, but otherwise, the competition will be first to market, and the exec may lose their bonus. So, the exec keeps their bonus, and when the tech debt collapses, the exec will either have departed long ago or will be let go with a golden parachute, and in the worst case an entire product line goes down the drain, if not the entire company.
The financialization and stonkmarketization of everything is killing our society.
The average LLM writes cleaner, better-factored code than the average engineer at my company. However, I worry about the volume of code leading to system-scale issues. Prior to LLMs, the social contract was that a human needs to understand changes and the system as a whole.
With that contract being eroded, I think the sloppiness of testing, validation, and even architecture in many organizations is going to be exposed.
The social contract where I work is that you’re still expected to understand and be accountable for any code you ship. If you use an LLM to generate the code, it’s yours. If someone is uncomfortable with that, then they are leaning too hard on the LLM and working outside of their skill level.
Considering that AI still can't even reliably get basic programming tasks correct, it doesn't seem very likely that turning it loose will improve software quality.
It might actually turn out like that. A lot of bloat came from efforts to minimize developer time. Instead of truly native apps a lot of stuff these days is some react shaped tower of abstractions with little regard for hardware constraints.
That trend might reverse if porting to a best practice native App becomes trivial.
Considering how many companies that have adopted AI led to disastrous bugs and larger security holes?
I wouldn't call it an idealist position as much as a fools one. Companies don't give a shit about software security or sustainable software as long as they can ship faster and pump stocks higher.
but think of all your battery life gains
Removing docking functionality could possibly reduce RAM usage by never enabling 4K screen output. This would be similar to the switch lite.
Although, for a $450 device that doesn’t need to make much of a profit on its own, I also don’t think they’re heavy on memory in the first place (12GB). You can buy top quality Chinese Android handhelds with more RAM and better Qualcomm processors than the Switch 2 for about the same price, and those companies are making $0 in software royalties (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
> Removing docking functionality could possibly reduce RAM usage by never enabling 4K screen output. This would be similar to the switch lite.
Every version of the Switch 1 had 4GB of RAM, they didn't cut that on the Lite. Going back and patching every game to ensure it ran on less RAM it was originally designed for would have been a nightmare.
> (e.g., AYN Thor Max is $450 with a 16GB/1TB configuration).
AYN just announced that the Thor will get a price increase soon for obvious reasons.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SBCGaming/comments/1rf5gxq/to_thor_...
Oh yeah, I accidentally implied the switch lite cut down RAM when it didn’t.
Of course the Thor Max will have a price increase, but also, obviously 16GB/1TB is a massively bigger bill of materials than the Switch 2’s 12GB/256GB configuration.
And I forgot to mention that Nintendo has far more pricing leverage in terms of their volume.
I honestly think the memory shortage kills the possibility of a Switch 2 Lite.
Nintendo can't realistically take memory budget away from developers after the fact. The 2DS cut the 3D feature from the 3DS, but all games were required to be playable in 2D from day 1, so no existing games broke on the cost-reduced 2DS.
The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.
The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance.
As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though.
Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.
> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.
It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways.
I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google.
A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a.
Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the phone in my day to day. In 10 hours today I sent 3 text messages with Whatsapp and lost 60% of my battery in that time frame. Up until a few days ago, 60% would last me 3 days.
I find it weirdly coincidental that the battery life went from amazing to worse than a 5 year old device I had prior to this just as they are releasing new phones. I've powered it down and given it a full discharge / charge too. It's still draining at an alarming rate.
Yup, I’ve heard of that “bug” from personal friends so you’re not imagining things.
Did it happen to them in the last few days? Did it self fix itself?
I wish there were better options for phones. It's absolutely crazy to me that a phone can be perfectly working one day and then it starts getting issues like this out of the blue.
It makes it completely undependable. All I want is a phone I can trust traveling with where I'm not going to wake up the next day and then the phone starts draining 3-4x faster than it normally does.
There hasn't even been a system update for almost 3 weeks, so it wasn't an update that busted things.
Couldn't this just be confirmation bias?
The only reason I changed my phone was because my provider stopped supporting it when migrating to 5g VoIP.
Otherwise I'd still be rocking my S9.
I'm also using a pixel 2 for Android development and Google play billing isn't supported on it.
The hardware is fine but they make it obsolete with software.
I'm guessing they'll soon move to a subscription pricing for phones.
I am rocking a second hand phone that I got 5 years ago.
It might last until 4G is turned off.
I can’t really imagine needing greater bandwidth than I have now but I still use the phone like it’s 2010.
Upcoming Apple display mounted to wall or robot arm is rumored to have audio interface and new OS without 3rd-party apps, only "AI".
Jony Ive at OpenAI is rumored to have smart speaker, pendant, pen and bone-conducting headset in the launch pipeline. Audio interfaces, no screens,
Meta is selling millions of smart glasses, with Apple and others following.
If the memory market was not distorted, home AI + agents + open models could have a bigger role via AMD Strix Halo. Instead, they will be reserved for those who can afford to spend five figures on 512GB or 1TB unified memory on Mac Studio Ultra devices.
Wall mount? I'll pray for an e-Ink model.
I'd love a working bone conduction headset. Also a subvocalization to agent thingy that worked.
Apple recently spent $2B to bring subvocalization inference to iPhones, from the inventor of FaceID and Kinect, https://www.newsweek.com/apples-2b-ai-acquisition-could-have...
> users [could] interact with Siri and future Apple devices without speaking out loud.. AI systems capable of interpreting facial expressions and subtle muscle movements to understand so-called “silent speech.”
I’d love a 2015 input system that worked, but my iPhone’s keyboard prediction has been broken for like a year.
Have you looked into Shokz? I use these a lot, they seem like working bone conduction headsets to me.
https://shokz.com/pages/openrunpro2
when you say "audio interface" I assume you mean like, "Hey Siri" and not an audio interface as in recording device, right?
So we are talking about a HomePod with a screen, or like one of those Meta "Portal" things?
Not sure. Some AI audio pendants are always on. The Apple device is rumored to adapt its interface to the user based on facial recognition. They could choose to start monitoring audio when it thinks a known human wants to interact with the device, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47145201
> Some AI audio pendants are always on. The Apple device is rumored to adapt its interface to the user based on facial recognition.
Hmmm, so they traded always-on audio recording for always-on video recording. Not sure this is an improvement.
OSes have been in decline for a long time. This memory price is just a blip, though. These supply and demand shocks happen periodically and always return to normal.
> Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline.
Just "commoditizing". Last years microwave ovens were basically the same as 2024's also, and no one cares. You still need them and people still buy them and use them as much as ever, but at a replacement rate and not because of fashion or innovation.
That is a good thing. It means the economy is doing what it's supposed to do and bringing maximal value to consumers so we can spend our resources more efficiently (on other fashion-driven junk in different market segments), making us richer.
It's only bad news if your business is selling "phones" and not innovative products more generally. Which, yeah, is pretty much AAPL's trap. But that's on them, not us. We're winning.
So I take it then we’re seeing more efficient and cheap models as time passes right? Definitely not a software regression and higher prices?
We are and have been for many years now. Check out the "free" phone tier at your mobile vendor of choice. Those are great devices!
They may not match your particular tastes, but people with inflexible taste are always the last-resort market for manufacturers of commoditized products. People still buy from Hermès even though Shein completely dwarfs them in revenue, etc... That's the way it will always be with Apple too.
Don't worry, I'm sure the billions of dollars being spent on AI slop will restore consumer enthusiasm any day now...
Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy.
Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.
Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or not meet expectations which really is the tip of the iceberg.
The US/SK memory cartel understandably sold out for a massive short term windfall but they their long term decisions to limit supply have created a huge opportunity for China. I wouldn't be surprised if this will go down in the history books as the start of the exit for US/SK from the industry and the start of Chinese dominance.
The smart phone industry is likely to respond with an increasingly hostile anti-consumer approach as they try and lock customers into the cabins of the sinking ship. I expect cheap and cheerful Chinese budget phones aren't going anywhere.
I am happy for ram, cpu and storage to stall. I want a more robust and open phone which can take a fall and be updated long after the vendor loses interest. I expect to uninstall most of my apps rather than install new ones as I increasingly disconnect from an ever more distracting and worthless medium. I have cancelled nearly every subscription service in the last 12 months. And I have been deleting a lot of free accounts and apps. Its like doing a big cleanup. Surprisingly rewarding.
HN has felt like more than 50% AI industry promoting blog spam of little interest to me as a reader for some time. I am setting a budget of ten, no make it five, more posts here. Then I am out for good. Account deletion and no looking back.
> Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality.
Companies have reduced staff because of the impact of tariffs, because of low consumer confidence and spending, or as a ploy to pump share prices. Then they claim it’s AI, because it sounds a lot better to say that you’re reducing headcount because of AI than it does to admit that you’re cutting costs because of falling revenue.
> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy.
Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.
The U.S. gov't is now committing a sizeable chunk of GDP to investments and subsidies to AI companies and data centers and has reduced overall investment in wind and solar.
With launch costs finally falling there really could be more investment into space related technologies.
Everything that produces useful stuff or does useful stuff.
The DRAM shortage and lack of fab capacity have also caused the Playstation 6 to slip to 2029 or so.[1] Game consoles are vulnerable. They need a lot of RAM and have to sell at a moderate price.
The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again. "While memory prices are projected to stabilize by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to previous level — making the sub-$100 segment (171 million devices) permanently uneconomical." Before, they always came back down in the next RAM glut, when everybody built too much capacity. Why is that not going to happen next time?
[1] https://www.heise.de/en/news/Storage-crisis-Playstation-6-co...
> The IDC article says that DRAM prices are not expected to come down again
Sure thing. I'd take a look at IDC & similar firms' forecasting history before worrying too much about what they say.
There is an AI boom right now. There will be a consolidation cycle at some point. When that happens half the players, if not more, will disappear. The huge hardware budgets will go with them.
We also can't be certain that the DRAM makers aren't capitalizing on this opportunity because they can. Remember: all of them are convicted monopolists. As in actual prison time convicted. And fined. And lost civil lawsuits. Multiple times.
I just can't see AI paying enough of a premium on HBM to justify the DRAM spikes. Frankly I can't see the volume either. Wafer starts on DRAM are dramatically bigger than you are probably imagining. DRAM is in practically everything these days. AI servers is but a drop in the bucket. 10% of the market? Yeah right, if its 4% I'd be shocked. And you are telling me a shift of 4% of wafers to HBM is driving these prices and shortages?
I humbly suggest if you look at the numbers something smells funny.
Disclaimer: none of us has access to the actual data, a lot of it is inferred by industry players. Some are well connected and usually accurate but that is not evidence. Therefore it is possible this is a genuine market action and nothing nefarious is going on.
You’re asking why a market that has had 3 price fixing lawsuits in less than 2 decades (criminal convictions in 1998, civil in 2006 and 2018) isn’t going to follow market dynamics?
One reason we end up with excess capacity is process improvements; adding new fabs to get more density or performance doesn't make old fabs go away, and so we go through cycles of excess capacity. Demand has been relatively constant.
Here we're facing different forces-- unprecedented demand for DRAM that may be durable. But it also looks like the pace of supply changes may be decreased as process improvements get smaller and the industry stops moving so much in lockstep.
It still matters what happens to the demand function, though. If enough AI startups blow up that there's a lot of secondhand SDRAM in the market, and demand for new SDRAM is impacted, too, that will push things down.
Sort of like what happened with the glut of telecom equipment after
> Why is that not going to happen next time?
Because this shortage isn't natural, it's the result of OpenAI flexing monopsony power to deprive everyone else for its strategic gain. Unlike an organic shortage, there is no compelling reason for otherwise excess capacity to be built, since this artificial shortage can end as arbitrarily as it started.
The datacenters are still going to be built, and their usage won't suddenly fall just because the companies behind some of the products on them suddenly lose value. The demand is not tied to their profits, so I find it unlikely for the shortage to just end.
These data center projects are losing hundreds of billions of dollars which they don't have, and some evidence is starring to come out they're just money laundering schemes to get money from the government to contractors. I wouldn't bet on them all being built.
There far too many railways, amusement parks, housing developments and other bubble ventures that were either never even completed after wasting a lot of money or went bust soon after opening.
No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.
The data centers have already been financed, they’re not going to stop halfway through because they’ve run out of money. Whether or not they’ll make money on completion is a different story, but that’s 2-3 years away at least. Then you might see RAM prices drop, but not before.
Financed means they have a promise to get the money, it doesn't mean they have the money.
I would not be so sure - for example Oracle is already struggling to finance its datacenter commitments:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/shareholders-sue-...
We don’t know when the PS6 is going to be released, as of now that is just a rumor.
I'll bet you $5000 it doesn't release before 2029.
> Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 this year
I know I'm not speaking to all the people that need to hear it, but used phones are very affordable, and reduce waste. A used iphone 13 is about $200 in the US: https://swappa.com/listings/apple-iphone-13?sort=price_low
I recently upgraded from the Pixel 7 to the 10. Nothing but regret - the phone isn't worse, but it's not better either, and I had to reinstall everything. Why did I do this?
The cool thing about Pixels is that not only will you have to pay extra for RAM because of AI, but some of the RAM you paid for will also be permanently reserved for local AI features, regardless of whether you use them.
https://www.androidpolice.com/google-pixel-10-3-5-gb-ai-only...
Pixels only make sense if you are going to install Graphene. The Google OS is bloated with spyware.
On a Pixel phone you have only Google spyware. On another brand's phone you have all the same Google spyware, plus the spyware from that brand and a permanently locked bootloader.
You can remove 3rd party spyware/bloat in 15 minutes with Shizuka/canto and a usb cable and you won't notice anything changed in the phone. Unfortunately the Google spyware is so deeply integrated that you can't really do that unless you accept a ton of things not working - not just Google apps but also lots of third party apps that require Play services.
Yes, if you want full degoogling you need a custom ROM like Graphene on Pixels or Lineage. The main issue these days is that bootloaders are locked. Phone manufacturers mostly refuse to give you control over your own hardware.
> You can remove 3rd party spyware/bloat in 15 minutes with Shizuka/canto
These techniques seem not to be widely known. A kagi search turned up only information about some singer.
That’s on Google. iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are amazing upgrades.
From the 16?
The price for whatever we're getting out of AI is way too high.
Meanwhile Apple iPhone sales were up 23% YoY end of last year. It'll likely be a good year for Apple, with a little more room in margin to make some plays, and a lottt of cash.
That was last year when the DRAM price crisis hadn't happened yet...
Dropped my iPhone couple of days ago so I had to go back to an old phone. Pixel 3a. Opens Signal and HomeAssistant faster than my 2022 iPhone ever did so why would I even buy a new phone and go back at this point. The best phones (prive/value) have already been built and sold.
Also worth noting that Apple recently paid a king’s ransom for Samsung RAM
King's ransom or market price?
The market price of the ransom for a King is a King's ransom.
I sez what I sez
They redistributed money that fools gave them.
Lest we forget, this memory shortage was deliberately engineered [1]. Thanks, OpenAI.
[1]: https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...
All the more reason to hope that company crashes and burns.
These are Bonkers times we live in. Be honest, who had "Sam Altman kills Apple Computer" on their 2025/6 Bingo card?
From reading this link it sounds like OpenAI successfully dodged oligopoly bullet.
Programmers who know how to pack a struct: your moment has come!
Also Python generators for the lulz. They help one to write extremely memory-efficient programs. Perhaps the memory shortage further helps cement Python in the language popularity charts, vis-à-vis languages that tend to load whole data in memory by default, like R.
If we are talking about R, a lot of people who converted from R continued to operate in the same manner, by loading entire datasets into memory with pandas and numpy.
If the memory shortage is real and sustained, I wonder whether we’ll see a secondary effect in the resale market.
> I wonder whether we’ll see a secondary effect in the resale market.
I'm paying more on ebay for thinkcentre tiny and thinkpads - 12th gen intel and newer.
Refurbished spinny drives have been steadily climbing - up 50% since late last year. That's on top of the 20% mystery jump that happened in the last week of 2024.
50% is nothing when RAM is up 500% or so.
We already are. Check eBay at the component level, which is showing it quite clearly. Look for secondary/reclaimed/refurbished components to backfill the gaps too.
Also be aware that this stuff whipsaws, if OpenAI actually takes posession of that memory and decides they can't use it and dumps, we're going to see a crash. Likewise if they back out of the deals with the memory fabs (or fail and default). There's some scary volatility on the horizon.
I don't think it's about memory shortage.
It's that everything has become 20% more expensive in the past year, I'm being taxed to death, fighting with companies trying to money grab me, my electric bill is now $800, and I'm now too broke to buy a new phone every 2 years when most of my income gets eaten by the "system".
I'll wait until either SPY does another 50% run or BTC does another 100% run and then I'll buy a new phone. Google, you want me to buy your new phone? Do something to make SPY or BTC go up and then we'll talk. Until then my current phone works, and the new features aren't a must-have.
SPY has been flat when measured in other currencies btw. Everything's more expensive and SPY is up 20% because US money is worth 20% less.
Yeah, so I'm not buying unnecessary crap this year.
If the "system" wants to drive more consumption, it's on the "system" to put more buying power into my hands. Double my salary, reduce my taxes, make BTC do a big run up, something. Otherwise I'm happy staying put.
Wait until we find out that all of tech (ever) has been subsidized by the true-so-far assumption of continued growth, allowing today’s costs to be paid for by tomorrow’s larger market.
Are you talking about tech, pensions or credit?
Maybe an upside? These past years it feels like meaningful hardware spec bumps are on the horizon, like in the 90s, 2010s.
After all this churn subsides there is a chance entry level Windows laptops will start at 32GB RAM and maybe 8-12GB VRAM?
Which could end up being about 5-10-15 years of progress packed into 2-3-4.
I doubt. Microsoft would much rather sell you a thin client & a Windows 365 subscription, and Nvidia wants you to use GeForce now instead of buying a GPU.
The shortage is manufactured, I have my doubts it will "end" in a conventional sense. I'm more skeptical and feel like this is yet another consolidation of wealth and a means of taking away compute power from people, which prevents startup competition. This way the hyperscalers are the only ones that can offer any meaningful compute.
How do you figure? I'd think scarce and expensive RAM would push entry level models to smaller amounts of RAM.