Reminds me of our President (SA) asking his colleagues to sign a pledge not to do corruption; when there's already a swearing in that does the same thing.
I don't understand why anybody without access to serious inside information is currently betting on prediction markets. It's clear that insiders are absolutely going to eat your lunch. So who are the suckers who are losing all this money?
I guess this isn't true for all things you might bet on, but it seems to be true for a lot of them.
I remember reading something awhile ago in regards to why people were investing in NFTs when it seemed so clear they were a scam. The gist of it was that it's easy to get into cryptocurrency, but it's hard to get out. KYC, taxes, age requirements, currency fees, etc are enough of a barrier that many people would rather just keep those assets in virtual space. Polymarket is the answer to the question "Well what else am I gonna do with this crypto I own"
That's complete nonsense for the simple reason that it is possible to pay just fine with crypto on various sites, also to buy major gift cards. No KYC applies to these actions. We are not living in 2016.
It is either not being offered in depth by anyone market-maker (part of the answer given the relatively small revenue opportunity) or it is being offered by people who aren't sophisticated enough.
Bookmakers offer markets on events where someone can know the outcome. The difference is that they have tools to prevent adverse selection.
Prediction markets offer none of those protections so the market structure is going to end up being very different (which is already happening, revenue opportunity from politics isn't huge). There are other examples of this around latency arb, market is going to be very different.
Also, I will point out that most insiders are probably going to be losing money too. All that you ever read is the final outcome, you don't read the stuff that happens before. Politics is, generally, not a good market because the actual event is driven by decisions made by people. Election markets are fine but political event markets are not good, even if you have inside information.
There's no shortage of people willing to make extremely poor financial decisions on games of chance, it's why gambling was heavily regulated. Visit a casino and witness addiction in-person, it's a sad sight.
The ads for prediction markets on TikTok are aggressive - like (paraphrasing) "this is your new source of passive income and you'd be crazy to miss it" aggressive.
So basically the standard online scam script for 20+ years but in a TikTok. I remember seeing AdWords text ads in the 2000s for "make $$$ working from home".
Kind of what I was thinking. If it is essentially InsidrBetz.com why bet at all? This is the kind of thing that could (should, anyway) kill the industry.
> White House staff were warned last month not to use insider information to place bets on predictions markets.
Misleading title. They were not "told not to place bets", they were warned not to use insider information to trade. They are still free to trade otherwise. As the article explains it is already illegal to use insider information to trade on prediction markets. So this warning is good legal advice for anyone.
Kalshi: Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Y Combinator, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis (KKR), and CapitalG (Alphabet).
Polymarket: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE - parent of the NYSE), Founders Fund (Peter Thiel), Vitalik Buterin, and 1789 Capital (Donald Trump Jr.).
PredictIt: Primarily supported by Aristotle International (a political tech firm) and historically Victoria University of Wellington.
Donald Trump Jr.: Prominent investor in Polymarket through his firm, 1789 Capital, and serves as a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi.
The current CFTC Chairman, Michael Selig, created a 35-member panel to draft new regulations for prediction markets. This panel includes the CEOs of the platforms they regulate, such as Shayne Coplan (Polymarket) and Tarek Mansour (Kalshi).
These companies were blatant about operating illegally in the US. I remember being shocked to see the live billboard polymarket ads in Philadelphia on the eve of the election. I guess there are too many scandals these days for this to stand out.
And how about friends & family without official roles, congressional appointment process approvals, etc who just.. happen to be around a lot and involved in a lot of stuff?
It currently has 99 Democratic sponsors and 31 Republican sponsors (note: there are more Republicans than Democrats in the House). It will probably not make it out of committee. 2 of the 4 Democrats on the committee have sponsored it; 0 of the 8 Republicans have.
You need to apply it to staff as well and also the judicial branch and all of their staff. Then to all of their family as well.
The way I understand insider trading is usually prosecuted is you find out who made the bet & then you have to track down their communications to see if they got tipped off.
1. The executive is doing very obvious insider trading, you can point at exact trades and bets that are clearly being made based on inside info. That's very different than the statistical arguments made about congressional portfolios.
2. Congress isn't privy to the same kind of inside info. Congress will know about changes in government spending with a few weeks to a month or so of lead time. The executive insiders were timing trades down, literally, to the minutes before the start of military action.
Basically that's a terrible whataboutist game you're playing.
It is in SEC regulated markets like NYSE and NASDAQ. But prediction markets are grifty garbage. Insider trading laws only apply to regulated markets.
Just about anything to do with crypto is sketchy. I don't know why anyone still messes with it. Maybe they just like propping up Iran's oil tolls, ransomware perps, and shovelling money to Dumpty and his merry band of grifters?
It is easier for the SEC to investigate futures, stocks & options. Some of the prediction/gambling markets use crypto and do not participate in "Know Your Customer" regulations.
Honestly not that big a difference here. Both can be loosely interpreted as gambling, especially with the same rough upsides (money without production or consumption!) downsides (addiction, critical existence failure of all your savings) and the corruption and perverse incentives they invite.
If there's one positive that can be made of this admin, it's the realization that all the things that went without saying ("don't profit from the office", "don't insider trade", "don't leak confidential information") need much stronger enforcement mechanisms.
Aside from the current horrible admnistracion.
If I understand correctly, One of the strengths of prediction markets is to try to get the insiders to come in and provide insider information thus improving the total info available.
Please don't do insider trading. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Reminds me of our President (SA) asking his colleagues to sign a pledge not to do corruption; when there's already a swearing in that does the same thing.
You missed the fine print at the bottom: "lolz".
For those who live in the red-pilled real world, just don't trade on something where controlling insiders can beat you at the game.
Whew! Glad that's sorted.
I don't understand why anybody without access to serious inside information is currently betting on prediction markets. It's clear that insiders are absolutely going to eat your lunch. So who are the suckers who are losing all this money?
I guess this isn't true for all things you might bet on, but it seems to be true for a lot of them.
I remember reading something awhile ago in regards to why people were investing in NFTs when it seemed so clear they were a scam. The gist of it was that it's easy to get into cryptocurrency, but it's hard to get out. KYC, taxes, age requirements, currency fees, etc are enough of a barrier that many people would rather just keep those assets in virtual space. Polymarket is the answer to the question "Well what else am I gonna do with this crypto I own"
That's complete nonsense for the simple reason that it is possible to pay just fine with crypto on various sites, also to buy major gift cards. No KYC applies to these actions. We are not living in 2016.
It is either not being offered in depth by anyone market-maker (part of the answer given the relatively small revenue opportunity) or it is being offered by people who aren't sophisticated enough.
Bookmakers offer markets on events where someone can know the outcome. The difference is that they have tools to prevent adverse selection.
Prediction markets offer none of those protections so the market structure is going to end up being very different (which is already happening, revenue opportunity from politics isn't huge). There are other examples of this around latency arb, market is going to be very different.
Also, I will point out that most insiders are probably going to be losing money too. All that you ever read is the final outcome, you don't read the stuff that happens before. Politics is, generally, not a good market because the actual event is driven by decisions made by people. Election markets are fine but political event markets are not good, even if you have inside information.
There's no shortage of people willing to make extremely poor financial decisions on games of chance, it's why gambling was heavily regulated. Visit a casino and witness addiction in-person, it's a sad sight.
> So who are the suckers who are losing all this money?
Random people who saw an ad or their favorite influencer shilling it.
Like when my neighbors started asking me about NFTs.
The ads for prediction markets on TikTok are aggressive - like (paraphrasing) "this is your new source of passive income and you'd be crazy to miss it" aggressive.
So basically the standard online scam script for 20+ years but in a TikTok. I remember seeing AdWords text ads in the 2000s for "make $$$ working from home".
Kind of what I was thinking. If it is essentially InsidrBetz.com why bet at all? This is the kind of thing that could (should, anyway) kill the industry.
Arrogance / hubris. Some people even if they know it's rigged will believe they know which side the insiders are on
My personal conspiracy theory is that in some cases, the "loser" is in on the graft to. It's a way to launder bribes.
Prediction markets are ridiculously diverse so it’s quite a stretch to say that imo.
Hedging is one rational reason.
People go to casinos despite knowing the house has the edge in games. Gambling is addictive.
Yes, but you also know exactly how large that edge is. And it's relatively small.
I suspect most casual gamblers don't know that.
The same goes for stock market too.
"But we have laws criminalizing insider trading..." the only proper response to this is: hahahaha.
Only the top guys are allowed to do insider trading! You guys are making it very very slightly more obvious!!
> White House staff were warned last month not to use insider information to place bets on predictions markets.
Misleading title. They were not "told not to place bets", they were warned not to use insider information to trade. They are still free to trade otherwise. As the article explains it is already illegal to use insider information to trade on prediction markets. So this warning is good legal advice for anyone.
Does that include friends and cousins? Asking for a friend or cousin.
When you elect a bunch of TV wannabes to run your country this is what happens.
Investor highlights for each platform:
Kalshi: Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Y Combinator, Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis (KKR), and CapitalG (Alphabet).
Polymarket: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE - parent of the NYSE), Founders Fund (Peter Thiel), Vitalik Buterin, and 1789 Capital (Donald Trump Jr.).
PredictIt: Primarily supported by Aristotle International (a political tech firm) and historically Victoria University of Wellington.
Donald Trump Jr.: Prominent investor in Polymarket through his firm, 1789 Capital, and serves as a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi.
The current CFTC Chairman, Michael Selig, created a 35-member panel to draft new regulations for prediction markets. This panel includes the CEOs of the platforms they regulate, such as Shayne Coplan (Polymarket) and Tarek Mansour (Kalshi).
These companies were blatant about operating illegally in the US. I remember being shocked to see the live billboard polymarket ads in Philadelphia on the eve of the election. I guess there are too many scandals these days for this to stand out.
And how about friends & family without official roles, congressional appointment process approvals, etc who just.. happen to be around a lot and involved in a lot of stuff?
I think the proper thing to do would be to forbid these markets to make bets on stuff that can be won by using only insider information.
Like the stock market?
Mmm..yea. But stock market is not something new, and this possibility always existed.
So I was only thinking about Poloymarket and stuff like that.
While we’re at it, how about all Congress?
I'm sure every POTUS has at one point thought it would be great if they could dictate what congress does
There is currently a bill proposed to do that (for stocks, not prediction market betting, but eh it's a start): https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr5106
It currently has 99 Democratic sponsors and 31 Republican sponsors (note: there are more Republicans than Democrats in the House). It will probably not make it out of committee. 2 of the 4 Democrats on the committee have sponsored it; 0 of the 8 Republicans have.
You need to apply it to staff as well and also the judicial branch and all of their staff. Then to all of their family as well.
The way I understand insider trading is usually prosecuted is you find out who made the bet & then you have to track down their communications to see if they got tipped off.
Reasons to treat these situations differently:
1. The executive is doing very obvious insider trading, you can point at exact trades and bets that are clearly being made based on inside info. That's very different than the statistical arguments made about congressional portfolios.
2. Congress isn't privy to the same kind of inside info. Congress will know about changes in government spending with a few weeks to a month or so of lead time. The executive insiders were timing trades down, literally, to the minutes before the start of military action.
Basically that's a terrible whataboutist game you're playing.
I'm sure it's a preventive measure and no one placed bets to enrich themselves in the last 12 months...
insane they needed to be told
Isn't that in the law?
If it were in the law, which part of the justice system do you think would be:
1. Capable
2. Desirous of
3. Competently followed
It is in SEC regulated markets like NYSE and NASDAQ. But prediction markets are grifty garbage. Insider trading laws only apply to regulated markets.
Just about anything to do with crypto is sketchy. I don't know why anyone still messes with it. Maybe they just like propping up Iran's oil tolls, ransomware perps, and shovelling money to Dumpty and his merry band of grifters?
“Do as I say, not as I do.”
Naughty! Anyway
[delayed]
Surely half millions on prediction markets is pennies compared to what is getting made on oil futures/stocks.
It is easier for the SEC to investigate futures, stocks & options. Some of the prediction/gambling markets use crypto and do not participate in "Know Your Customer" regulations.
It is far easier in crypto. It is much more difficult in futures...as the case of a recent repeat Presidential candidate showed.
That will change when people realise crypto isn't anonymous...but that day isn't today.
They’re doing money transmission and they’re not doing KYC? Is that illegal or “really frowned upon”?
Honestly not that big a difference here. Both can be loosely interpreted as gambling, especially with the same rough upsides (money without production or consumption!) downsides (addiction, critical existence failure of all your savings) and the corruption and perverse incentives they invite.
You’d think so, but these types of people are afraid of stocks or options and find prediction websites easier to use.
*unless they give the big guy a 50% cut
It is trully pathetic that this needs to be said.
If there's one positive that can be made of this admin, it's the realization that all the things that went without saying ("don't profit from the office", "don't insider trade", "don't leak confidential information") need much stronger enforcement mechanisms.
It is understandable that they require coaching on this issue when betting markets are being deregulated and Trump Jr. is invested in Polymarket.
It’s laughable that it’s even necessary to tell them.
Hey don’t abuse privileged workplace information for personal gain isn’t exactly a fresh notion.
Imagine if professionals like lawyers and accountants operated like that.
Consider the kind of people who would staff this white house.
It's bipartisan, just look at Pelosi's portfolio.
Aside from the current horrible admnistracion. If I understand correctly, One of the strengths of prediction markets is to try to get the insiders to come in and provide insider information thus improving the total info available.
It also incentivize people to follow the events and remember stuff so that they are better equipped to make predictions.
I think it incentivize people to use their head and may be even select better leaders.
One of the weaknesses is incentivizing people to do horrible things, if that makes their bet a wining one.