This was known long ago maybe even days into the attack if you follow independent journalists. Made US ask some satellite data companies to stop releasing images to individuals. Now they are just releasing it slowly for US media consumption so that people don't realize how bad it is. They had to bring back installed equipment from South Korea pointed at China that tells you how badly they were hit.
There’s always a tension in democratic societies, however, where civilian oversight is important. Claiming the war is going really well until asking for $200,000,000,0000 because it isn’t has little military benefit compared to the political ramifications of preventing public oversight.
We learned from WikiLeaks that the US government classified (hid) significant information that was not relevant to national security, simply to conceal information about the war effort that would likely have turned public opinion against the war.
That is a clear abuse of power, which like most of the abuses revealed by Wikileaks, Snowden, etc., get solid bipartisan support.
Why is it assumed that they cannot get that information in other ways? If only they had an ally with satellite imaging capabilities that have a vested interest in seeing the US struggle. Sure, they can tune into CNN and see what's being said there too, but to assume that's their sole source of information is just farcical.
Iran reportedly bought[1] a TEE-01B satellite from China in 2024, giving them quite detailed images directly with ~half meter (~1.7 feet) resolution[2]. Granted they reportedly also got help from Chinese ground stations.
So they could probably just check themselves how it was going, unless they wanted rapid feedback I suppose.
There's a limit to how many photos you can take with somebody else's satellite. Even if the russkies are complying with every Iranian request, that would at least serve to deny russia the ability to use their own surveillance resources to their fullest potential.
This allegedly ally has likely considered all the potential advantageous and disadvantages and is acting accordingly. Sometimes the smartest move one can make is no move at all.
This is nonsense, they have the same information as everyone else right? Iran knows because Russia knows. Even the private sector has satellites. There is no secret.
Sigh, there would be no need for propaganda wins or worrying about enemy learning about their accuracy level if this elective war did not take place at all.
But none of it is a surprise, is it? Iran was on the list for a while now and last time I mentioned it on this forum, I was laughed, because "it didn't happen yet" either missing the concerted effort to make it happen or being part of the deflection campaign.
It’s funny (and sad) how literally the entire MAGA philosophy and political operative system boils down to projection.
It is supreme irony for the people who have been howling about “draining the swamp” of “the deep state” to immediately bend over to the wishes of the actual deep state to attack Iran. Previous administrations resisted the pressure from those voices since it is so strategically moronic.
Pizzagate? Projection. Obviously.
Election fraud, rigged elections, stop the steal? Projection.
“Obama made gas expensive?” Projection.
The left is fiscally responsible and will balloon the budget deficit? Projection.
I am so sick of this whole situation and it’s tragic that real people are dying over such senseless incompetence.
To me the propaganda win would be showing Hegseth saying the US is doing really well and not acknowledging losses while showing all of the damage the US has sustained. In this day and age, only the die hard loyal MAGA followers are unwilling to accept these bald-faced lies, and even their eagerness is waning.
Americans have a very low tolerance for the true cost of war (which I think is probably a good thing when they’re in the aggressor role).
The full truth of the situation going public is probably one of few ways to pull back on this unchecked government behaviour, given Congress seems all but dead.
Everyone has to rely on Iran's satellite images to find out what's happening because Trump is censoring the war by forcing a blackout of commercial satellites from providing any images.
I cant recall a war in my lifetime (45 years) where is has been impossible to have any idea of damage. Very little coming out of Iran, very little out of the US.
If you follow established news media, yes. The war is pretty well documented by independent journalists, good information is just harder the find.
I guess it is a combination of established media not doing well financially and lacking in quality and expertise and the general rise of authoritarianism and death of (mainstream) critical journalism. Free press has been severely limited these days.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Modern war is far more documented than at any point in history. Videos of strikes appear on social media within minutes of the strike happening, there are play-by-play breakdowns of the exact times strikes occur, pre-warning of strikes by people posting videos of planes on the way to strikes.
no, it's confirmed bullshit, the uranium is buried under a mountain of rubble and the equipment brought with them (2 C130s worth and ~100 soldiers) is not enough to retrieve anything.
Sad because in the US, more than half are the “good guys” with no way to stop what is happening. I’m sure the same is true of Iran too and maybe Israel.
1. Drones are a relatively recent evolution but are really a continuation of asymmetric warfare that has been wildly successful post-1945. The US has been woefully unprepared for cheap, mass-produced drones that, as evidenced by these satellite images, are equivalent to high-precision missiles in terms of effectiveness but are substantially cheaper;
2. Censoring these images serves no military purpose. Iran, China and Russia (among others) have access to accurate satellite imagery so censoring these images really just belies a fear of public opinion. Any cost estimates of this war given by the administration (which tend to be $1-2B/day) don't seem to include repairing and replacing lost weapons, radars, facilities, aircraft and other base infrastructure. That's going to be billions more;
3. It seems clear that this war so ill-considered and the US was so unprepared that (IMHO) will go down as the biggest strategic blunder in US history as the US military and Gulf security guarantees have shown to be a paper tiger and there is no military out of this conflict short of the use of nuclear weapons;
4. Despite claims to the contrary, the US does not appear to have air superiority over Iran. The evidence for this is the continued use of missiles and other so-called "stand off" weapons (ie fired at range to avoid SAMs and anti-aircraft batteries);
5. Despite administration claims to the contrary, there are now desperate shortages of munitions for missile defences, Tomahawk missiles and various other missiles. Some of these had already been dseriously depleted in the 12 day War. This has made things substantially worse and it will likely take years to replenish supplies;
6. The future of Gulf bases and secruity guarantees is now unclear given it's now been demonstrated that the US can't protect them; and
7. I'm not sure the UAE (and Duabi in particular) ever recovers from this. The image that Dubai is some stable center for business and finance in the MIddle East has been shattered. Will the wealthy come back knowing the US can't protect Dubai? I honestly don't know. Dubai is a "wretched hive of scum and villainy" (to quote Star Wars). It's key in Iran evading sanctions, Russia evading sanctions and instrumental in the South Sudan genocide (ie there's a trade between UAE arms from the US and stolen South Sudanese gold from the RSF). The UAE has left OPEC. I honestly don't know if this will be a good or bad decision long-term.
There are 3 players in this war and they all have very different goals. Israel wants to wreck Iran. The US wants out. Iran simply needs to survive. I'm not sure where we go from here. To back down, the US would need to split with Israel and that's a pill likely too difficult to swallow given that Israel is the only reason we're in this war at all.
Looming over all this is the upcoming summit between the US and China, currently set for next week. It's already been delayed once because of this war. Having this situation unresolved is going to greatly weaken the American negotiating position. The US may well want to delay it again. If so, (IMHO) China may well cancel it entirely.
First, I agree with you on the drones. They're a new entrant to the battlefield and the US has had to learn to adapt.
You're viewing Iran as a simple country vs. country war. This war is not about just Iran, this war is about energy, technology, and dominance against Russia and China.
Iran is a destabilizing power in the middle east. Not only does it control a bunch of oil itself, but it controls the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint means that Iran has had the oppprtunity to disrupt the world's energy supply. If you think you think this isn't a global risk then you don't understand the global economy. Instability in the global economy is a risk to US dominance.
The US has a very strong partner in Israel not only as an outpost, but as a technological partner and a strong intelligence partner. You might read articles about Israel making trouble in the region, but most of this has no true basis. In fact the Arab countries around Israel (the ones that aren't Russia/China aligned especially) but the ones that want stability like the UAE, Bahrain, and even SA are sick of proxies being used to create instability in the region. They want to sell their oil and they want US and Israeli technology.
There's no question that Iran is/was a threat to Israel - that's well documented. There's no question that Iran is/was a threat to US forces in the middle east, that's documented.
So, who's the biggest winner if Iran ceases to be a destabilizing force in the middle east and no longer has a chokehold on global energy supply - the US. This reenforces US dominance.
Somehow you see this as making China stronger - it doesn't do that. At best it drives Russia closer to China but that has already happened.
Right now the US is energy dominant in almost all categories. Having a strong foothold in the Gulf especially loosely controlling the SoH would solidify this.
Quick side note - air superiority means that you can fly planes around the country without major risks of being shot down. The US maintains complete air superiority since essentially this started. Until the ceasefire they were able to bomb targets at will.
You are thinking of air supremacy, not air superiority. We clearly have air superiority. We can conduct operations of our choosing in the places/times we choose, we just can't do it with no ability for enemy intervention. This is also true for the straits, we have superiority but need supremacy for civilian shipping to consider transiting.
This was known long ago maybe even days into the attack if you follow independent journalists. Made US ask some satellite data companies to stop releasing images to individuals. Now they are just releasing it slowly for US media consumption so that people don't realize how bad it is. They had to bring back installed equipment from South Korea pointed at China that tells you how badly they were hit.
This is normal. Confirming hits gives your enemy valuable information about their accuracy.
I'm going to go with a "lol, Iran doesn't have access to Russian and Chinese state-based and public satellite imagery?"
Sure, "this is fine."
There’s always a tension in democratic societies, however, where civilian oversight is important. Claiming the war is going really well until asking for $200,000,000,0000 because it isn’t has little military benefit compared to the political ramifications of preventing public oversight.
We learned from WikiLeaks that the US government classified (hid) significant information that was not relevant to national security, simply to conceal information about the war effort that would likely have turned public opinion against the war.
That is a clear abuse of power, which like most of the abuses revealed by Wikileaks, Snowden, etc., get solid bipartisan support.
Why is it assumed that they cannot get that information in other ways? If only they had an ally with satellite imaging capabilities that have a vested interest in seeing the US struggle. Sure, they can tune into CNN and see what's being said there too, but to assume that's their sole source of information is just farcical.
Iran reportedly bought[1] a TEE-01B satellite from China in 2024, giving them quite detailed images directly with ~half meter (~1.7 feet) resolution[2]. Granted they reportedly also got help from Chinese ground stations.
So they could probably just check themselves how it was going, unless they wanted rapid feedback I suppose.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-used-chinese-spy-sa...
[2]: https://thedefensewatch.com/product/tee-01b-earth-observatio...
There's a limit to how many photos you can take with somebody else's satellite. Even if the russkies are complying with every Iranian request, that would at least serve to deny russia the ability to use their own surveillance resources to their fullest potential.
This allegedly ally has likely considered all the potential advantageous and disadvantages and is acting accordingly. Sometimes the smartest move one can make is no move at all.
how's that working out in Ukraine?
It’s not 1943. They know they hit.
This is nonsense, they have the same information as everyone else right? Iran knows because Russia knows. Even the private sector has satellites. There is no secret.
It also gives them propaganda wins.
Sigh, there would be no need for propaganda wins or worrying about enemy learning about their accuracy level if this elective war did not take place at all.
But none of it is a surprise, is it? Iran was on the list for a while now and last time I mentioned it on this forum, I was laughed, because "it didn't happen yet" either missing the concerted effort to make it happen or being part of the deflection campaign.
It’s funny (and sad) how literally the entire MAGA philosophy and political operative system boils down to projection.
It is supreme irony for the people who have been howling about “draining the swamp” of “the deep state” to immediately bend over to the wishes of the actual deep state to attack Iran. Previous administrations resisted the pressure from those voices since it is so strategically moronic.
Pizzagate? Projection. Obviously.
Election fraud, rigged elections, stop the steal? Projection.
“Obama made gas expensive?” Projection.
The left is fiscally responsible and will balloon the budget deficit? Projection.
I am so sick of this whole situation and it’s tragic that real people are dying over such senseless incompetence.
To me the propaganda win would be showing Hegseth saying the US is doing really well and not acknowledging losses while showing all of the damage the US has sustained. In this day and age, only the die hard loyal MAGA followers are unwilling to accept these bald-faced lies, and even their eagerness is waning.
"This is actually good news for the US."
those satellite images are from the "enemy" lol
Americans have a very low tolerance for the true cost of war (which I think is probably a good thing when they’re in the aggressor role).
The full truth of the situation going public is probably one of few ways to pull back on this unchecked government behaviour, given Congress seems all but dead.
Apple News Link for those that have it: https://apple.news/ATepjelNTSd-GZ0GpBtjjxw
Everyone has to rely on Iran's satellite images to find out what's happening because Trump is censoring the war by forcing a blackout of commercial satellites from providing any images.
The highest resolution imaging satellite Iran has is "Paya", and it's 5m base resolution. These do not appear to be that at all.
I’d bet all the money in my pocket they’re getting imagery from the Russians, who obviously want to maximize pain for the Americans.
I cant recall a war in my lifetime (45 years) where is has been impossible to have any idea of damage. Very little coming out of Iran, very little out of the US.
The whole conspiracy around the downed airman https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/a-ruse-to-snatch-urani... only adds to it.
If you follow established news media, yes. The war is pretty well documented by independent journalists, good information is just harder the find.
I guess it is a combination of established media not doing well financially and lacking in quality and expertise and the general rise of authoritarianism and death of (mainstream) critical journalism. Free press has been severely limited these days.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Modern war is far more documented than at any point in history. Videos of strikes appear on social media within minutes of the strike happening, there are play-by-play breakdowns of the exact times strikes occur, pre-warning of strikes by people posting videos of planes on the way to strikes.
Paywall.
They were trying to take Uranium out?
no, it's confirmed bullshit, the uranium is buried under a mountain of rubble and the equipment brought with them (2 C130s worth and ~100 soldiers) is not enough to retrieve anything.
Brazilian proverb: when gangsters fight, I cheer for the fight.
Among Trumpistan, Israel and Iran there is no good guy in this war.
Too bad about the bystanders.
There's a gulf between run-of-the-mill Brazlian gangsters and military superpowers.
Sad because in the US, more than half are the “good guys” with no way to stop what is happening. I’m sure the same is true of Iran too and maybe Israel.
Of these three countries, only one has been trying to stop what is happening so hard that tens of thousands of its people have died protesting.
Trump and Hegseth have been hiding and covering up way too much about the war wrt the damage incurred.
There are some observations we can make here:
1. Drones are a relatively recent evolution but are really a continuation of asymmetric warfare that has been wildly successful post-1945. The US has been woefully unprepared for cheap, mass-produced drones that, as evidenced by these satellite images, are equivalent to high-precision missiles in terms of effectiveness but are substantially cheaper;
2. Censoring these images serves no military purpose. Iran, China and Russia (among others) have access to accurate satellite imagery so censoring these images really just belies a fear of public opinion. Any cost estimates of this war given by the administration (which tend to be $1-2B/day) don't seem to include repairing and replacing lost weapons, radars, facilities, aircraft and other base infrastructure. That's going to be billions more;
3. It seems clear that this war so ill-considered and the US was so unprepared that (IMHO) will go down as the biggest strategic blunder in US history as the US military and Gulf security guarantees have shown to be a paper tiger and there is no military out of this conflict short of the use of nuclear weapons;
4. Despite claims to the contrary, the US does not appear to have air superiority over Iran. The evidence for this is the continued use of missiles and other so-called "stand off" weapons (ie fired at range to avoid SAMs and anti-aircraft batteries);
5. Despite administration claims to the contrary, there are now desperate shortages of munitions for missile defences, Tomahawk missiles and various other missiles. Some of these had already been dseriously depleted in the 12 day War. This has made things substantially worse and it will likely take years to replenish supplies;
6. The future of Gulf bases and secruity guarantees is now unclear given it's now been demonstrated that the US can't protect them; and
7. I'm not sure the UAE (and Duabi in particular) ever recovers from this. The image that Dubai is some stable center for business and finance in the MIddle East has been shattered. Will the wealthy come back knowing the US can't protect Dubai? I honestly don't know. Dubai is a "wretched hive of scum and villainy" (to quote Star Wars). It's key in Iran evading sanctions, Russia evading sanctions and instrumental in the South Sudan genocide (ie there's a trade between UAE arms from the US and stolen South Sudanese gold from the RSF). The UAE has left OPEC. I honestly don't know if this will be a good or bad decision long-term.
There are 3 players in this war and they all have very different goals. Israel wants to wreck Iran. The US wants out. Iran simply needs to survive. I'm not sure where we go from here. To back down, the US would need to split with Israel and that's a pill likely too difficult to swallow given that Israel is the only reason we're in this war at all.
Looming over all this is the upcoming summit between the US and China, currently set for next week. It's already been delayed once because of this war. Having this situation unresolved is going to greatly weaken the American negotiating position. The US may well want to delay it again. If so, (IMHO) China may well cancel it entirely.
Let me give you a new perspective.
First, I agree with you on the drones. They're a new entrant to the battlefield and the US has had to learn to adapt.
You're viewing Iran as a simple country vs. country war. This war is not about just Iran, this war is about energy, technology, and dominance against Russia and China.
Iran is a destabilizing power in the middle east. Not only does it control a bunch of oil itself, but it controls the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint means that Iran has had the oppprtunity to disrupt the world's energy supply. If you think you think this isn't a global risk then you don't understand the global economy. Instability in the global economy is a risk to US dominance.
The US has a very strong partner in Israel not only as an outpost, but as a technological partner and a strong intelligence partner. You might read articles about Israel making trouble in the region, but most of this has no true basis. In fact the Arab countries around Israel (the ones that aren't Russia/China aligned especially) but the ones that want stability like the UAE, Bahrain, and even SA are sick of proxies being used to create instability in the region. They want to sell their oil and they want US and Israeli technology.
There's no question that Iran is/was a threat to Israel - that's well documented. There's no question that Iran is/was a threat to US forces in the middle east, that's documented.
So, who's the biggest winner if Iran ceases to be a destabilizing force in the middle east and no longer has a chokehold on global energy supply - the US. This reenforces US dominance.
Somehow you see this as making China stronger - it doesn't do that. At best it drives Russia closer to China but that has already happened.
Right now the US is energy dominant in almost all categories. Having a strong foothold in the Gulf especially loosely controlling the SoH would solidify this.
Quick side note - air superiority means that you can fly planes around the country without major risks of being shot down. The US maintains complete air superiority since essentially this started. Until the ceasefire they were able to bomb targets at will.
You are thinking of air supremacy, not air superiority. We clearly have air superiority. We can conduct operations of our choosing in the places/times we choose, we just can't do it with no ability for enemy intervention. This is also true for the straits, we have superiority but need supremacy for civilian shipping to consider transiting.