One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is)
One side is responsible for at least 20.000 but more likely 60.000 Iranian deaths, just this year (and nobody seems to mind)
Not having big issues to figure out between these 2 who is the good guy ...
> One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is)
The Pax Americana is great, but given America was one of the countries to start this war, I don't know how much credit they can get for something they just ended.
Are you being sarcastic? Iran is ruled by a an authoritarian theocratic regime that took over through violence and has been ruling over their citizens through violence. Iran is also the biggest backer of terrorists in the Middle East, and has supported Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and many others. It’s Iran’s ruling power that has been unchecked for too long.
"He's out of line, but he's right": while Iran are an extremely bad actor, before Trump the situation was stable. And the start of conventional hostilities was clearly from the US+Israel side.
(open question as to how much the October 2023 attack is the fault of Iran, specifically?)
I'm probably wrong but it seems glaringly obvious to me that the two supposed allies are not at all acting in a coordinated way. One hand doesn't know what the other one is doing or one hand is just ignoring it.
I’m not sure he ever stopped golfing. But yes, getting back to some other distraction, an expensive one, no doubt - I’m sure that would ease his mind considerably.
Cuba is up next but that can't get started until he has a "win" on Iran. They aren't giving him the chance to pretend he's a genius like all his lackeys do for him.
I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out.
It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.
I'm glad Iran is teaching the US and Israel a lesson. Their aggression and attacks have gone unchecked for far too long.
I'm having a hard time not cheering for "the little guy" here before realizing that everyone actively involved here is actually bad.
Let's see ...
One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is)
One side is responsible for at least 20.000 but more likely 60.000 Iranian deaths, just this year (and nobody seems to mind)
Not having big issues to figure out between these 2 who is the good guy ...
> One side is responsible for the "pax Americana" (but everyone here was born into the time period and so doesn't realize how exceptionally peaceful it is)
The Pax Americana is great, but given America was one of the countries to start this war, I don't know how much credit they can get for something they just ended.
Are you being sarcastic? Iran is ruled by a an authoritarian theocratic regime that took over through violence and has been ruling over their citizens through violence. Iran is also the biggest backer of terrorists in the Middle East, and has supported Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and many others. It’s Iran’s ruling power that has been unchecked for too long.
Most sane people view Israel and the US as the terrorists and Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis as the revolutionaries.
Are they mutually exclusive?
"He's out of line, but he's right": while Iran are an extremely bad actor, before Trump the situation was stable. And the start of conventional hostilities was clearly from the US+Israel side.
(open question as to how much the October 2023 attack is the fault of Iran, specifically?)
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I'm probably wrong but it seems glaringly obvious to me that the two supposed allies are not at all acting in a coordinated way. One hand doesn't know what the other one is doing or one hand is just ignoring it.
This would be standard negotiations if the parties involved were competent.
In theory this gives the US the opportunity to offer Iran concessions in Lebanon at zero cost.
What allies would those be?
The US and Israel. Nothing about their approach here seems coordinated, they're both just doing whatever.
I suspect Iran's goal is to drag this out until US midterm elections.
A CAPE ratio of 40x and record-high margin debt; what could go wrong?
Here we go ...
The craziest thing to me is that the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July.
We will be lucky if any ships get through the straight by December.
> the conventional wisdom is that this will be over by July
Whose "conventional" wisdom?
Crude oil prices appear to encode an optimistic outcome.
Can't wait for Trump to offer them $300B of our money for this to go away so he can get back to golfing with our money.
I’m not sure he ever stopped golfing. But yes, getting back to some other distraction, an expensive one, no doubt - I’m sure that would ease his mind considerably.
Cuba is up next but that can't get started until he has a "win" on Iran. They aren't giving him the chance to pretend he's a genius like all his lackeys do for him.
Maybe we can throw in some US treasury printing plates too
There has been a lot of posturing from both sides, this is probably going to continue for a couple of months more before they reach equilibrium.
I don't think we should consider gross incompetence on the part of the US to be posturing.
I'm only giving a neutral perspective. The moment the world stops relying on oil, Iran will lose its biggest leverage in this situation. Other sources of energy are going to be pushed even more.
There is more that goes through Hormuz than just oil- like fertilizer for example. Just been able to charge a fee for crossing the Hormuz is a strategic goal for Iran. This is an outcome of the war. Previously Iran did not know how weak US is - but now they figured out.
It would be interesting to see if this war will be a net negative for Israel. If Iran emerges with more financial resources out of the war you can bet they will fund Hamas and Hezbollah more than before the war.