People can't see the exponential. That is why they think there is time. There is no time. Current play goes like this double the size of the stock market asap think trillion dollar new companies. Increase revenue through increased capital gains. Hope that this works before a forced default.
Since we run a deficit and aren't paying any of it, in less than 14 yrs the debt will double just because of interest accumulated. I think I'm being generous. It will probably take way less time. This can't continue.
With inflation everyone pays including the kids with lemonaid stands simply because the things we all buy get more expensive. I much rather have a fair tax system where those who have more pay a bit more. But that's not how people think so I think we'll see inflation contine plus whatever issues come with that.
My guess is that we'll eventually elect a populist liberal government similar to what happened after the great depression and FDR was elected. Simply because the lower and middle class will be so stressed trying to keep up with inflation that they/we will want a fix where the harder edges of capitalism are soften by government. It going to be interesting
It was during the first term of Trump when he said something like "So long as people are buying oil in US Dollars, it doesn't matter how high the debt is."
It is reckless but he is kind of right. So long as it is the hemoglobin for a sizable bulk of global trade, it can potentially go a lot higher. But that is a path that ends in tears, any time between next Tuesday and 50 years from now.
I used to think the rise of cryptocurrencies for international transaction could decouple the US dollar enough to limit the ability to create too many bonds or too much quantitative easing, butt then stablecoins got popular, and they really like to link to USD.
This goes well with JD Vance wanting to end US Dollars reserve currency status. Truly the robber barons can't just leave a shell, it has to be graveyard dead too.
People can't see the exponential. That is why they think there is time. There is no time. Current play goes like this double the size of the stock market asap think trillion dollar new companies. Increase revenue through increased capital gains. Hope that this works before a forced default.
Since we run a deficit and aren't paying any of it, in less than 14 yrs the debt will double just because of interest accumulated. I think I'm being generous. It will probably take way less time. This can't continue.
That's a hair over 5% interest. As long as the US is also printing enough money to keep inflation at that level, it's not costing anything.
That alone can't cause an economic collapse, but sure can make one much worse.
The costs are still there, with the printer you just change who foots the bill.
With inflation everyone pays including the kids with lemonaid stands simply because the things we all buy get more expensive. I much rather have a fair tax system where those who have more pay a bit more. But that's not how people think so I think we'll see inflation contine plus whatever issues come with that.
My guess is that we'll eventually elect a populist liberal government similar to what happened after the great depression and FDR was elected. Simply because the lower and middle class will be so stressed trying to keep up with inflation that they/we will want a fix where the harder edges of capitalism are soften by government. It going to be interesting
It was during the first term of Trump when he said something like "So long as people are buying oil in US Dollars, it doesn't matter how high the debt is."
It is reckless but he is kind of right. So long as it is the hemoglobin for a sizable bulk of global trade, it can potentially go a lot higher. But that is a path that ends in tears, any time between next Tuesday and 50 years from now.
I used to think the rise of cryptocurrencies for international transaction could decouple the US dollar enough to limit the ability to create too many bonds or too much quantitative easing, butt then stablecoins got popular, and they really like to link to USD.
This goes well with JD Vance wanting to end US Dollars reserve currency status. Truly the robber barons can't just leave a shell, it has to be graveyard dead too.
In other words, “Uh … we meant to do that!”
Another discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49366743
https://www.usdebtclock.org/ Bookmark that site; it has the stats on US Debt and related accounts.