"This is frustrating to admit, because prediction markets can be societally useful: it is important to have good forecasts on federal government shutdowns, landfall of hurricanes in the Southeast, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz"...
Prediction markets do not provide good forecasts, and are in no way "societally useful".
I've been told that prediction markets provide reasonably good forecasts compared to most other methods. Could you help me understand why that might not be true?
"This is frustrating to admit, because prediction markets can be societally useful: it is important to have good forecasts on federal government shutdowns, landfall of hurricanes in the Southeast, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz"...
Prediction markets do not provide good forecasts, and are in no way "societally useful".
I've been told that prediction markets provide reasonably good forecasts compared to most other methods. Could you help me understand why that might not be true?