> I loved using it while watching Season 50, and it identified several interesting threads early on.
The ideas in TFA are interesting, but it’s important to keep in mind that when we watch Survivor, we’re not watching something that happened in real time and then was simply compiled together. Survivor is edited after the fact, once the winners and all the arcs of contestants are known.
And don’t get me wrong! I love watching the show even knowing that in my mind. But a model built on the edited material is necessarily biased due to the format of the show itself.
> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million
I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?
Well I didn't want apoilers so I stopped reading. If the author is here, please remove the navigation floater from the side. The article is so narrow. I had to zoom all the way in on my device to get one graph to be full sized. Impresaiveely it wasn't pixelated. I want to see your graphs better.
> I loved using it while watching Season 50, and it identified several interesting threads early on.
The ideas in TFA are interesting, but it’s important to keep in mind that when we watch Survivor, we’re not watching something that happened in real time and then was simply compiled together. Survivor is edited after the fact, once the winners and all the arcs of contestants are known.
And don’t get me wrong! I love watching the show even knowing that in my mind. But a model built on the edited material is necessarily biased due to the format of the show itself.
> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million
I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?
> Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?
https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833
That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
Well I didn't want apoilers so I stopped reading. If the author is here, please remove the navigation floater from the side. The article is so narrow. I had to zoom all the way in on my device to get one graph to be full sized. Impresaiveely it wasn't pixelated. I want to see your graphs better.