I would agree that any notion of a large martian settlement (much less a comfortable one that people actually want to live in) on any shorter timeframe is not realistic and that Mars cannot be treated as a "plan B" in the case of climate change making Earth uninhabitable, total dismissal of the idea rubs me the wrong way.
Yes, it's an unfathomably difficult and complex project that should not be in any way underestimated. Realistically, it will take many decades at minimum and probably in excess of a century. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be attempted however, and it's not as if any of it will magically get easier in all the time spent not trying. This could wind up being a self-fulfilling prophecy sort of situation if it's allowed to be.
It’s an interesting article, but my advice is to skip the middleman and get a copy of the book discussed, ‘A City On Mars’. It’s entertaining, informative and well researched/cited. It’s also my go-to recommendation for people coming at this from a layperson/enthusiast perspective because the reasons why “colonize Mars anytime soon” is comical and an obvious lie once you dig in are complex. Unfortunately said reasons are multidisciplinary to the extreme so an overview in digestible form can be helpful for people who’ve been emotionally invested in this fantasy.
Although fact checking is essential, I doubt that it will make a difference here. It clearly doesn’t make a difference in politics or religion. Much of the enthusiasm for Mars colonization is based on science fiction rather than science fact, childhood dreams not adult practicality.
I think it’s important to hold Mars enthusiasts to specific timelines. What will humanity do in a hundred thousand years, or a million years, if it survives that long? Who knows. Humanity hasn’t even had agriculture for that long. The relevant question is, what will humanity do with regards to Mars within the coming decades? Let's be honest: nothing much. Elon Musk had made predictions about the future that have already passed and proven false. How many times will you allow him to kick the can down the road before you stop believing lies? Let’s also stop pretending that launching some rockets now will somehow prepare for the hundred-thousand-year future. The best way to get to that future is to preserve the only currently habitable ecosystem in the solar system, by immediately stopping pollution and global warming on Earth. Sadly, Musk is financially backing politicians who are doing the opposite.
No no, you got it all wrong: all the billionaires are right, yes we should go to mars, it's perfectly save and they should lead their chosen people to their to-be-built kingdom, their B-ark going first. What part of this plan do you not understand? Let Elon lead the charge, Darwin Awards will have a field day.
This topic is a bit of a sore spot for me.
I would agree that any notion of a large martian settlement (much less a comfortable one that people actually want to live in) on any shorter timeframe is not realistic and that Mars cannot be treated as a "plan B" in the case of climate change making Earth uninhabitable, total dismissal of the idea rubs me the wrong way.
Yes, it's an unfathomably difficult and complex project that should not be in any way underestimated. Realistically, it will take many decades at minimum and probably in excess of a century. That doesn't mean it shouldn't be attempted however, and it's not as if any of it will magically get easier in all the time spent not trying. This could wind up being a self-fulfilling prophecy sort of situation if it's allowed to be.
It’s an interesting article, but my advice is to skip the middleman and get a copy of the book discussed, ‘A City On Mars’. It’s entertaining, informative and well researched/cited. It’s also my go-to recommendation for people coming at this from a layperson/enthusiast perspective because the reasons why “colonize Mars anytime soon” is comical and an obvious lie once you dig in are complex. Unfortunately said reasons are multidisciplinary to the extreme so an overview in digestible form can be helpful for people who’ve been emotionally invested in this fantasy.
Related, which some might find interesting:
"Packing for Mars" by Mary Roach
Although fact checking is essential, I doubt that it will make a difference here. It clearly doesn’t make a difference in politics or religion. Much of the enthusiasm for Mars colonization is based on science fiction rather than science fact, childhood dreams not adult practicality.
I think it’s important to hold Mars enthusiasts to specific timelines. What will humanity do in a hundred thousand years, or a million years, if it survives that long? Who knows. Humanity hasn’t even had agriculture for that long. The relevant question is, what will humanity do with regards to Mars within the coming decades? Let's be honest: nothing much. Elon Musk had made predictions about the future that have already passed and proven false. How many times will you allow him to kick the can down the road before you stop believing lies? Let’s also stop pretending that launching some rockets now will somehow prepare for the hundred-thousand-year future. The best way to get to that future is to preserve the only currently habitable ecosystem in the solar system, by immediately stopping pollution and global warming on Earth. Sadly, Musk is financially backing politicians who are doing the opposite.
it's not just "fraught with risk"
it's physically impossible with current technology for humans to survive a trip to Mars and live on the surface
space really, really wants to kill life
cosmic rays will kill humans before they even make it to Mars
there is no current technology that shields from cosmic rays
we should appreciate the earth greatly for its atmosphere and magnetosphere that shields us from them
best emulation idea so far is to surround astronauts with several feet of water
but we don't have the lift capacity for that much water weight
the total time on the moon outside the capsule per person maximum was 22 hours
the astronauts kept seeing bursts of light even with their eyes closed
when NASA inspected the helmets there were microscopic groove where some had made it all the way through
cosmic rays are physical particles traveling near the speed of light
the bursts of light were their nerves and other cells being destroyed by the cosmic rays
it was happening to their brains and CNS too
mice exposed to simulated cosmic rays became slow and stupid
[delayed]
Magnets can reduce the cosmic ray risk:
https://phys.org/news/2026-07-permanent-magnets-astronauts-s...
> it's physically impossible with current technology for humans to survive a trip to Mars and live on the surface
You seem to say this as if it’s some sort of enlightened reason to “not”
Instead, I suspect for many, enumerating, quantifying and solving the impossible is precisely the reason we venture into the unknown.
No no, you got it all wrong: all the billionaires are right, yes we should go to mars, it's perfectly save and they should lead their chosen people to their to-be-built kingdom, their B-ark going first. What part of this plan do you not understand? Let Elon lead the charge, Darwin Awards will have a field day.