My Instagram ads are just filled with Polymarket, Kalshi, brand name casinos... it's endless. It's all low level influencers talking about how much money they're making, how you can bet (and yes, it is betting) any time you have 30 seconds to spare, how easy it makes it all.
I feel like there's been a growing, dark underbelly of gambling addiction since it was legalized online. And it's going to be difficult to walk it back.
(the ones that truly blow my mind are the promo ads for people gambling on buying mystery collectible cards then virtually "ripping" the pack open. Grown adult men paying hundreds of dollars! Absolutely wild.)
Gambling and betting always seem target explotation of people who aren't well off already. Like lottery tickets I worry that Polymarket, Kalshi and the like are ways to further destroy the marginal in an apathetic if not malign political environment. It doesn't seem like anyone is doing anything about it.
A number of state governments are working hard to do something about it. The reason it seems like no action is being taken is that they've bribed the federal government to take their side.
you can work on your timeline and who you follow, maybe use a vpn, and make sure meta doesn't really know who you are. my timeline has none of that shit.
If I cared enough to go to those lengths I’d just stop using Instagram. I don’t really object to being shown these ads, it’s just wild to me how widespread this all is.
> (the ones that truly blow my mind are the promo ads for people gambling on buying mystery collectible cards then virtually "ripping" the pack open. Grown adult men paying hundreds of dollars! Absolutely wild.)
Lesser known is that Polymarket’s Twitter accounts themselves are actually rebranded personal accounts from (often cancelled) esports personalities. People who have given up their brand or their career sold their accounts to Polymarket, who rebranded them.
You can check by looking up tweets from their account IDs. I think it’s possible they may have even left up the old tweets if you scroll back far enough.
I have an old reddit account with a lot of karma. I once got an offer for it, I believe around $2,000. Its incredible to me how much this is being done by deep pocketed marketers, and I imagine botnet operators working for heaven knows who. This something not talked about much but buying up and re-branding accounts with established viewership or high-karma happens a lot.
I have seen it politically and part of shady marking. I read the girlsgamer sub on reddit and I remember a big influx of "I'm a woman and I support (current game with sexist elements)." Back then you could see everyone's post and comment history. You could see these accounts went quiet a year or two or three and their history was very male coded, then came back on-line recently pushing culture-war narratives and describing themselves very differently than their original posts and comments.
I also saw the same thing with some suspicious right-wing posts on some political subs I'm on. Just an old account that had little to no political posting history suddenly coming alive and posting non-stop politics.
I think its safe to say all social media is badly compromised and gamed by monied players.
> I feel fine participating because Polymarket has no house edge or VIG
> Prediction markets are PVP thats the way i look at it
This is true but people should at least be informed that the overwhelming majority of trading volume is HFT firms with faster access to data and the prediction markets than you. These firms pay the prediction markets for that access, and the losses that happen on prediction markets flow to these few large HFT shops.
As someone who makes their living doing PMs this is far from the reality. There's lots of markets that are beatable without a latency edge. Also anyone can apply to be co-located with their servers if you do KYC.
While this is true, retail click traders are still not remotely on the same playing field in any regard as an electronic trading desk who takes the market seriously.
That's obviously true, but at least retail are totally allowed to place maker orders and act as the 'sportsbook' themselves. Taker orders are usually (but far from always) -ev but again at least there's the option to be a maker. Many of the best opportunities is to take liquidty from HFT firms with poor prices as well (there's too many markets for them to price it all correctly and you have an advantage by being allowed infinite time to think about how to price a given market).
> use of the Polymarket site (the “Polymarket Site”) for trading activities, by persons or entities who are U.S. persons (“U.S. Persons”), as defined in the enclosed Appendix, is strictly prohibited, with no exceptions
Whatever other analysis makes sense here, can you imagine a less satisfying job? I think cleaning up elephant dung would give me more career satisfaction than this.
> The 50 Cent Party, also known as the 50 Cent Army or wumao (/ˈwuːmaʊ/; from Chinese: 五毛; lit. 'five dimes'), are Chinese government employees posting online comments to divert public attention or promote positive sentiment.
> ...
> The name "50 Cent Party" is derived from claims that government hired commentators are reportedly paid RMB¥0.50 (5 jiao) for every post in order to shape public opinion in ways favorable towards Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies.[1][5][6]
A study published in 2017 points out that almost everything known about the 50 Cent Party in the past had been wrong. Most combative posts and commentators attributed to the 50 Cent Party were instead linked to private nationalistic individuals.
They do this on Reddit as well. Some accounts post about news and events with an image attached, and just so happen to include a reference to Polymarket somewhere in the image every time, even when it makes no sense.
This is definitely slimy, but it's pretty much bog-standard slimy marketing practice these days, no? Like these is framed as though it's a big expose, but isn't it common knowledge that tons of companies do this kind of thing?
My Instagram ads are just filled with Polymarket, Kalshi, brand name casinos... it's endless. It's all low level influencers talking about how much money they're making, how you can bet (and yes, it is betting) any time you have 30 seconds to spare, how easy it makes it all.
I feel like there's been a growing, dark underbelly of gambling addiction since it was legalized online. And it's going to be difficult to walk it back.
(the ones that truly blow my mind are the promo ads for people gambling on buying mystery collectible cards then virtually "ripping" the pack open. Grown adult men paying hundreds of dollars! Absolutely wild.)
Gambling and betting always seem target explotation of people who aren't well off already. Like lottery tickets I worry that Polymarket, Kalshi and the like are ways to further destroy the marginal in an apathetic if not malign political environment. It doesn't seem like anyone is doing anything about it.
A number of state governments are working hard to do something about it. The reason it seems like no action is being taken is that they've bribed the federal government to take their side.
>My Instagram ads
That's your one-two punch right there. On Instagram, and viewing ads. Best thing to do is avoid both.
I knew someone was going to post this. Thank you for the startling and brand new to me revelation that both Instagram and advertising are Not Good.
you can work on your timeline and who you follow, maybe use a vpn, and make sure meta doesn't really know who you are. my timeline has none of that shit.
If I cared enough to go to those lengths I’d just stop using Instagram. I don’t really object to being shown these ads, it’s just wild to me how widespread this all is.
> (the ones that truly blow my mind are the promo ads for people gambling on buying mystery collectible cards then virtually "ripping" the pack open. Grown adult men paying hundreds of dollars! Absolutely wild.)
Sounds just like a lot of NFTs.
Lesser known is that Polymarket’s Twitter accounts themselves are actually rebranded personal accounts from (often cancelled) esports personalities. People who have given up their brand or their career sold their accounts to Polymarket, who rebranded them.
You can check by looking up tweets from their account IDs. I think it’s possible they may have even left up the old tweets if you scroll back far enough.
I have an old reddit account with a lot of karma. I once got an offer for it, I believe around $2,000. Its incredible to me how much this is being done by deep pocketed marketers, and I imagine botnet operators working for heaven knows who. This something not talked about much but buying up and re-branding accounts with established viewership or high-karma happens a lot.
I have seen it politically and part of shady marking. I read the girlsgamer sub on reddit and I remember a big influx of "I'm a woman and I support (current game with sexist elements)." Back then you could see everyone's post and comment history. You could see these accounts went quiet a year or two or three and their history was very male coded, then came back on-line recently pushing culture-war narratives and describing themselves very differently than their original posts and comments.
I also saw the same thing with some suspicious right-wing posts on some political subs I'm on. Just an old account that had little to no political posting history suddenly coming alive and posting non-stop politics.
I think its safe to say all social media is badly compromised and gamed by monied players.
> I feel fine participating because Polymarket has no house edge or VIG
> Prediction markets are PVP thats the way i look at it
This is true but people should at least be informed that the overwhelming majority of trading volume is HFT firms with faster access to data and the prediction markets than you. These firms pay the prediction markets for that access, and the losses that happen on prediction markets flow to these few large HFT shops.
As someone who makes their living doing PMs this is far from the reality. There's lots of markets that are beatable without a latency edge. Also anyone can apply to be co-located with their servers if you do KYC.
While this is true, retail click traders are still not remotely on the same playing field in any regard as an electronic trading desk who takes the market seriously.
That's obviously true, but at least retail are totally allowed to place maker orders and act as the 'sportsbook' themselves. Taker orders are usually (but far from always) -ev but again at least there's the option to be a maker. Many of the best opportunities is to take liquidty from HFT firms with poor prices as well (there's too many markets for them to price it all correctly and you have an advantage by being allowed infinite time to think about how to price a given market).
Do you know what KYC stands for?
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfY-3Dl3yxq8HKFjFad...
> anyone
> use of the Polymarket site (the “Polymarket Site”) for trading activities, by persons or entities who are U.S. persons (“U.S. Persons”), as defined in the enclosed Appendix, is strictly prohibited, with no exceptions
Whatever other analysis makes sense here, can you imagine a less satisfying job? I think cleaning up elephant dung would give me more career satisfaction than this.
I'd hope so. Cleaning up elephant dung is doing something of actual value, unlike this.
For anyone wondering what "wumao" is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party:
> The 50 Cent Party, also known as the 50 Cent Army or wumao (/ˈwuːmaʊ/; from Chinese: 五毛; lit. 'five dimes'), are Chinese government employees posting online comments to divert public attention or promote positive sentiment.
> ...
> The name "50 Cent Party" is derived from claims that government hired commentators are reportedly paid RMB¥0.50 (5 jiao) for every post in order to shape public opinion in ways favorable towards Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies.[1][5][6]
So basically paid shills.
Your didn't finish the explainer:
So the term became a misnomer.Totally not gambling though
They do this on Reddit as well. Some accounts post about news and events with an image attached, and just so happen to include a reference to Polymarket somewhere in the image every time, even when it makes no sense.
This is definitely slimy, but it's pretty much bog-standard slimy marketing practice these days, no? Like these is framed as though it's a big expose, but isn't it common knowledge that tons of companies do this kind of thing?
It’s fun to think of showing this title to somebody in the year 2000 and telling them that it’s actually completely intelligible
Well well well