But I do agree with increasing the friction involved in signing up and depositing money.
It should not be possible to 1) sign up for kalshi, 2) complete identity verification, AND 3) deposit and place a $2000 real money bet --- within 5 minutes of downloading the app.
It's just way too damn easy. Let's at least make people wait 24 hours before placing their first bet... or something.
And stop allowing deposits with credit cards. This is most important.
I don't think the equivalent of waiting periods make sense.
If anything they should just ban advertising. Simple, worked for smoking for the most part, and we have precedent as it's harmful. Why does every sporting event have so many ads and sponsorships by these betting companies.
The worst thing about these sites is that they're necessarily net negative. If you win regularly, you'll be kicked off these platforms. They only want dumb money. True prediction markets are different since they're don't market makers and just enforce the contracts and there are people on each side. But the whole draft-kings type gambling markets are just awful
(Controversial take) The way I look at it, let's say 20% of users are addicts and who will jump through any hoop they need to in order to gamble. Very difficult to help this group. Banning won't stop them from betting.
The other 80% probably aren't addicts. They're people who like placing a fun $20 now and then. Which is fine. But let's not accidentally turn them into addicts by gamifying every aspect of betting. It shouldn't be so easy. And it shouldn't feel like I'm playing a video game.
And we really don't need push notifications from Kalshi reminding us to place bets every single day. (Not an exaggeration, I'm currently getting daily push notifications)
I swear about twenty years ago there was a minor controversy as a commentator said something like "you'll need to drop him from your fantasy team after that," as it was seen as promoting gambling.
Now players and teams will be displayed on screen with odds baked into the presentation and have it not even addressed by the commentator. Just normalized completely.
Minus several decades in rare cases but it’s going to be increasingly common.
Gambling always brings corruption. With on-premise casino games this is limited to inside of a single building owned by people who have a vested interest in keeping things looking honest.
With sports betting, there are huge incentives to collude or even act alone which are very hard to distinguish from legitimate play.
Internationally, horse racing, cricket, rugby, and (oh boy) soccer continue to have huge problems.
That's the beauty of gambling from a macro perspective though: you don't need scripted outcomes. The house wins either way. In fact scripted outcomes would be bad because not only is there heavy reputational stakes that could go south in a hurry, but that enables people to beat the house odds. If anything this seems like an incentive to keep things on the straight and narrow.
Necessary disclaimer since people will try to assume my position through my analysis: I don't like sports gambling, have never done it, and I hate that the ads have taken over.
What does "partnership" even mean in this context?
Does it just mean that the NBA will accept sponsorship money from these sites and how does that even work, since typically sponsorships want exclusivity?
Doesn't this weaken the argument that these prediction markets serve a distinct purpose other than gambling? I thought the idea was that prediction markets can help surface information, drawing on the wisdom of the crowd (some of whom might be familiar with the topic) to extract actionable insights. This is just sports betting, pure and simple... you can argue it's a market or a security, but whatever financial instrument you wrap it in, it's still just sports betting.
I mean, I agree, but whenever it comes up there's always someone who refuses to call a spade a spade... I'm curious how the pro-prediction market set would argue this is ok (other than to shrug and say "it's just one more thing to predict, why would we try to decide what can and can't be predicted?").
The league must have the lowest esteem for its “fans”. It used to be that even 2 degrees separation from gambling killed a player or manager’s career (e.g. Pete Rose). Now the entire league is in bed.
Why are you even watching sports? It’s full of gambling , weed and porn ads.
They really need to ban sports betting nationally. It is really bad for society.
I don't agree with banning it.
But I do agree with increasing the friction involved in signing up and depositing money.
It should not be possible to 1) sign up for kalshi, 2) complete identity verification, AND 3) deposit and place a $2000 real money bet --- within 5 minutes of downloading the app.
It's just way too damn easy. Let's at least make people wait 24 hours before placing their first bet... or something.
And stop allowing deposits with credit cards. This is most important.
I don't think the equivalent of waiting periods make sense.
If anything they should just ban advertising. Simple, worked for smoking for the most part, and we have precedent as it's harmful. Why does every sporting event have so many ads and sponsorships by these betting companies.
The worst thing about these sites is that they're necessarily net negative. If you win regularly, you'll be kicked off these platforms. They only want dumb money. True prediction markets are different since they're don't market makers and just enforce the contracts and there are people on each side. But the whole draft-kings type gambling markets are just awful
I definitely think that the same restrictions we put on tobacco advertising need to be applied to gambling apps.
I would add: ban all advertising of sports betting.
I feel that won't really stop the people who have serious problems with this shit, who actually ruin their lives
(Controversial take) The way I look at it, let's say 20% of users are addicts and who will jump through any hoop they need to in order to gamble. Very difficult to help this group. Banning won't stop them from betting.
The other 80% probably aren't addicts. They're people who like placing a fun $20 now and then. Which is fine. But let's not accidentally turn them into addicts by gamifying every aspect of betting. It shouldn't be so easy. And it shouldn't feel like I'm playing a video game.
And we really don't need push notifications from Kalshi reminding us to place bets every single day. (Not an exaggeration, I'm currently getting daily push notifications)
Sports betting and other forms of online gambling are bad. A lot of families will lose income due to gambling addiction.
Don't worry, I was assured all the problems are because gambling is illegal, not gambling itself.
It's critical for them to keep us hooked onto something, families destroyed be damned.
ah but see these are prediction markets, not gambling sites /s
Destroying financial security amongst those who become addicted but you’ll feel some dopamine spikes so it’s worth it.
It’s sad and worse than any headline is saying right now.
I swear about twenty years ago there was a minor controversy as a commentator said something like "you'll need to drop him from your fantasy team after that," as it was seen as promoting gambling.
It's crazy how dramatic the shift has been.
Now players and teams will be displayed on screen with odds baked into the presentation and have it not even addressed by the commentator. Just normalized completely.
[delayed]
There's a great podcast from CBC here about sports betting: https://www.cbc.ca/listen/cbc-podcasts/1353-the-naked-empero...
Sports betting enters a new era where leagues will have partnerships directly. How long before championships are scripted?
> How long before championships are scripted?
Minus several decades in rare cases but it’s going to be increasingly common.
Gambling always brings corruption. With on-premise casino games this is limited to inside of a single building owned by people who have a vested interest in keeping things looking honest.
With sports betting, there are huge incentives to collude or even act alone which are very hard to distinguish from legitimate play.
Internationally, horse racing, cricket, rugby, and (oh boy) soccer continue to have huge problems.
Bold of you to assume they haven't been the whole time.
One datapoint: Kalshi and Polymarket won't let you bet on WWE events.
For now.
That's the beauty of gambling from a macro perspective though: you don't need scripted outcomes. The house wins either way. In fact scripted outcomes would be bad because not only is there heavy reputational stakes that could go south in a hurry, but that enables people to beat the house odds. If anything this seems like an incentive to keep things on the straight and narrow.
Necessary disclaimer since people will try to assume my position through my analysis: I don't like sports gambling, have never done it, and I hate that the ads have taken over.
In regular gambling, the house is in control. In sports gambling, the players and refs can have their own agenda.
Who could have predicted this?!
But also, this shouldn't be allowed in any major sport wife they use any kind of public funds.
What does "partnership" even mean in this context?
Does it just mean that the NBA will accept sponsorship money from these sites and how does that even work, since typically sponsorships want exclusivity?
That's fine, the NBA product is at a low point in recent history anyway. Happy to skip NBA games until new leadership is installed.
Adam Silver really is a ghoul. He couldn't wait a few more days until Halloween to dump this haunt on us?
This should be illegal; these people should all be incarcerated.
It's disgusting. It's exploiting people's addictions and their economic situations.
Doesn't this weaken the argument that these prediction markets serve a distinct purpose other than gambling? I thought the idea was that prediction markets can help surface information, drawing on the wisdom of the crowd (some of whom might be familiar with the topic) to extract actionable insights. This is just sports betting, pure and simple... you can argue it's a market or a security, but whatever financial instrument you wrap it in, it's still just sports betting.
I think the idea has always been wealth extraction.
I mean, I agree, but whenever it comes up there's always someone who refuses to call a spade a spade... I'm curious how the pro-prediction market set would argue this is ok (other than to shrug and say "it's just one more thing to predict, why would we try to decide what can and can't be predicted?").
Trump Jr. is invested in both Kalshi and Polymarket:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/donald-tr...
This is basically Suharto level of corruption.
If you can't cheat 'em, join 'em.
"Welcome to the 42nd anniversary of Michael Jordan's first NBA game, brought to you by Kalshi!"
Nothing to be concerned about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E5crppxBn8
eh it's called gambling but sure.
The league must have the lowest esteem for its “fans”. It used to be that even 2 degrees separation from gambling killed a player or manager’s career (e.g. Pete Rose). Now the entire league is in bed.
Why are you even watching sports? It’s full of gambling , weed and porn ads.
A degrading experience.
Come on! I'm so offended by this.
You forgot to include fast food ads, a mainstay of sports advertising!
Otherwise, I totally agree.