I hope that free open weight models prosper and get spread far and wide. I've started actively talking to people I know who pay for Anthropic subscriptions to make sure they know they're funding a company that actively attacks open weights and sees free models as a danger to society.
if llm agents can code most current software for significantly cheaper than tradisional software development and open llms can replace a good chunk of that work alot of software moats of today disappear or at least have significant pressure on margins putting alot of the pressure on the "value" propping up the stock market. good for society bad for 401ks.
90% of the Stock Market is owned by 10% of the population. 50% of the stock market is owned by 1% of the population.
The larger problem of a collapse is the recession as the whole house of cards falls down, with a government unwilling or unable to stimulate the economy new-deal style.
You are right that any closed or open source model that isn't run locally or by a company you reallly trust, is going to be storing an monetizing your prompts. An interesting take I heard was how LLMs will change discovery in cases going forward because people are sending so much of what they are thinking to be recorded by OpenAI or Anthropic.
Unironically: I think it would be great if there were open-source datasets that we all collaborated on. But, in my opinion, open source would mean the commercial models could use them, too.
The hard part about a wikipedia model, overall: it costs hundreds(?) of millions of dollars in compute to train these things. Will we be able to get enough donations to afford that?
Most developers are paid for by large ompanies selling linux commercially, either directly (like redhat, canonical etc) or as services (google, microsoft, amazon)
Anthropic sells the most intelligent intelligence, and they have secured enough compute to build even smarter intelligence. There is the possibility of a chain reaction (AI trains better AI which trains better AI) that ANT leads. This valuation is justified simply by Claude being marginally smarter than its competitors and enterprise customers paying for this advantage.
This is the ANT bet:
1. With current technology, using more computer resources will result in a measurably smarter model.
2. ANT will have more compute resources than anyone else for the next 5 years.
3. The intelligence gap provides meaningful competitive advantage.
4. The regulatory, monetary, or military environments don’t stop ANT from doing its work.
> Anthropic will seek a valuation of around $1.33 trillion in its initial public offering [...]
That still feels wildly overvalued. SpaceX went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, and its P/E ratio is already a whopping 617.7. Anthropic doesn't even own data centers, rockets, a social media platform, or a profitable internet service.
A bunch of models that are at best 3 months before the competition? An inefficient training and inference infrastructure? A customer list that is shrinking by the day??
Exactly what here is worth this much money??
I will pull my money out of any index fund that is including openai and anthropic.
Do they have to threaten the us economy every week by forcing citizens to be exit liquidity for their investors? It's not cute. People are getting sick of it.
I hope that free open weight models prosper and get spread far and wide. I've started actively talking to people I know who pay for Anthropic subscriptions to make sure they know they're funding a company that actively attacks open weights and sees free models as a danger to society.
To be fair, both local and cloud models are a boon and danger simultaneously to society.
Sure, but local models at least don't have the threat model of "oligarch decides who's worthy of using them for which usecase"...
if llm agents can code most current software for significantly cheaper than tradisional software development and open llms can replace a good chunk of that work alot of software moats of today disappear or at least have significant pressure on margins putting alot of the pressure on the "value" propping up the stock market. good for society bad for 401ks.
90% of the Stock Market is owned by 10% of the population. 50% of the stock market is owned by 1% of the population.
The larger problem of a collapse is the recession as the whole house of cards falls down, with a government unwilling or unable to stimulate the economy new-deal style.
I wonder how much is owned by taxpayer funded defined benefit pension plans.
It does not seem easy to figure out the ultimate beneficiary:
https://x.com/arpitrage/status/1227667060987023361?a=p-ErOXN...
I guess I don't understand the business model of "open weights". Who pays for the training? Who pays for the datasets? Who pays for the reinforcement?
People used to say that if you aren't paying for the product then you are the product. How do we think open weights will be different?
You are right that any closed or open source model that isn't run locally or by a company you reallly trust, is going to be storing an monetizing your prompts. An interesting take I heard was how LLMs will change discovery in cases going forward because people are sending so much of what they are thinking to be recorded by OpenAI or Anthropic.
Maybe we should treat it like Wikipedia? A collective project of humanity?
Unironically: I think it would be great if there were open-source datasets that we all collaborated on. But, in my opinion, open source would mean the commercial models could use them, too.
The hard part about a wikipedia model, overall: it costs hundreds(?) of millions of dollars in compute to train these things. Will we be able to get enough donations to afford that?
> The hard part about a wikipedia model, overall: it costs hundreds(?) of millions of dollars in compute to train these things.
https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_Foundation_Annual_...
Annual Budget: $207.5M
Who pays for Linux development?
Most developers are paid for by large ompanies selling linux commercially, either directly (like redhat, canonical etc) or as services (google, microsoft, amazon)
Who paid for the LHC?
Anthropic sells the most intelligent intelligence, and they have secured enough compute to build even smarter intelligence. There is the possibility of a chain reaction (AI trains better AI which trains better AI) that ANT leads. This valuation is justified simply by Claude being marginally smarter than its competitors and enterprise customers paying for this advantage.
This is the ANT bet:
1. With current technology, using more computer resources will result in a measurably smarter model.
2. ANT will have more compute resources than anyone else for the next 5 years.
3. The intelligence gap provides meaningful competitive advantage.
4. The regulatory, monetary, or military environments don’t stop ANT from doing its work.
Fill your boots. I'll buy some when it totally tanks. :)
Seems as if major investors saw this coming already, so not that surprising if you have been paying attention.
> Major Investors Are Skeptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5T Valuation (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50386597)
Rough timing for them with everything dropping and everyone spooked
They kind of are part of that timing, no?
Is this value finally locked in? Can they still change it?
"to seek" and "to get" are not the same, no.
CNBC version: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-o... (no paywall)
Paywalled
> Anthropic will seek a valuation of around $1.33 trillion in its initial public offering [...]
That still feels wildly overvalued. SpaceX went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, and its P/E ratio is already a whopping 617.7. Anthropic doesn't even own data centers, rockets, a social media platform, or a profitable internet service.
spaceX doesnt have P/E since they dont make profit and are not going to for a very long time.
Good use of price anchoring.
How does that compare to a swag of Anthropic’s P/E?
It is wildly over valued
The numbers are made up as well as the valuation.
> Anthropic doesn't even own data centers, rockets, a social media platform, or a profitable internet service.
On the flip side, their valuation isn't mostly based on one person who could leave or go (more) insane at any time.
1.3T for what?
A bunch of models that are at best 3 months before the competition? An inefficient training and inference infrastructure? A customer list that is shrinking by the day??
Exactly what here is worth this much money??
I will pull my money out of any index fund that is including openai and anthropic.
Do they have to threaten the us economy every week by forcing citizens to be exit liquidity for their investors? It's not cute. People are getting sick of it.
Well said. We already had to deal with SpaceX.
I offer $3.50. Take it or leave it.
lol. Lmao, even.